# EM FX Outlook: Fed Easing Helps but Divergent Trends

> Continuum Economics' outlook expects the Brazilian real to appreciate modestly on spot and total returns, while the Chinese yuan faces negative total returns as China weakens its currency to support exports. The note links the outlook to the US election and possible new tariffs.

- Date: 2024-09-26 · published 2024-09-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/28520-em-fx-outlook-fed-easing-helps-but-divergent-trends
- Commodities: [Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCNY.md), [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker yuan would make Chinese purchases of US farm goods more expensive, while a stronger real raises the cost of Brazilian exports in dollar terms.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bearish ▼
- USDCNY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDCNY | 2023-06-14 | [Diverging rates outlook has China's yuan eying 2022 lows](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35712-diverging-rates-outlook-has-china-s-yuan-eying-2022-lows.md) | +0.3% | -0.1% |
| USDCNY | 2021-06-17 | [Yuan eases to 3-week low after Fed takes more hawkish outlook - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7119-yuan-eases-to-3-week-low-after-fed-takes-more-hawkish-outlook-markets-business.md) | +1.2% | +1.0% |
| USDCNY | 2022-06-08 | [China’s yuan eases amid concerns of increasing policy divergence - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41173-china-s-yuan-eases-amid-concerns-of-increasing-policy-divergence-markets.md) | +1.1% | +0.5% |
| USDCNY | 2024-04-16 | [Resurgent Dollar, Higher Yields Send EM Currencies to 2024 Lows - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11278-resurgent-dollar-higher-yields-send-em-currencies-to-2024-lows-bloomberg.md) | +0.0% | -0.1% |
| USDCNY | 2020-09-17 | [Yuan falls on dollar strength after Fed's upbeat economic outlook \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51315-yuan-falls-on-dollar-strength-after-fed-s-upbeat-economic-outlook-financial-post.md) | +0.8% | -0.4% |
| USDBRL | 2018-02-08 | [BCB: End to easing? - TDS — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66688-bcb-end-to-easing-tds-octa.md) | -0.2% | 0.0% |
| USDBRL | 2025-08-13 | [Brazilian markets gain momentum on easing inflation outlook](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23532-brazilian-markets-gain-momentum-on-easing-inflation-outlook.md) | +1.6% | +0.3% |
| USDBRL | 2019-08-23 | [Brazil: Improving domestic outlook versus external headwinds – Rabobank — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57790-brazil-improving-domestic-outlook-versus-external-headwinds-rabobank-octa.md) | +2.6% | +2.8% |

## Sources

- continuumeconomics.com: https://continuumeconomics.com/a/9f3307db/em-fx-outlook-fed-easing-helps-but-divergent-trends

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.