# IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society | September 2024 Quick Look

> The IRI's September 2024 ENSO update says neutral conditions persist, but early signs of La Niña are appearing. Its model gives equal odds to La Niña and neutral for September-November, while the official CPC outlook gives La Niña 71%. Borderline La Niña is forecast for October-December.

- Date: 2024-09-19 · published 2024-09-19T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/28234-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-september-2024
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

The gap between the forecasts keeps uncertainty high for South American crop risk. Traders may price in some weather premium, but a confirmed event would matter more for soy and corn.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2018-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 November Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61967-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-november.md) | -3.4% | +1.7% |
| SOY | 2020-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50564-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-october-quick.md) | +3.2% | +8.7% |
| SOY | 2021-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October 2021 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44471-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-2021-quick.md) | +1.3% | +2.9% |
| SOY | 2022-07-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| July 2022 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40389-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-july-2022-quick.md) | -1.6% | -0.2% |
| SOY | 2018-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62470-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-october-quick.md) | -2.5% | +2.9% |
| CORN | 2018-11-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2018 November Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61967-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2018-november.md) | -1.4% | +8.5% |
| CORN | 2020-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| 2020 October Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50564-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-2020-october-quick.md) | +2.7% | +2.6% |
| CORN | 2021-10-19 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| October 2021 Quick Look](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44471-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-october-2021-quick.md) | +0.7% | +10.3% |

## Sources

- iri.columbia.edu: https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2024-september-quick-look/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.