# La Nina weather 71% likely to develop in Sept-Nov, says US forecaster | Reuters

> Reuters reports that the US forecaster NOAA puts the chance of La Niña forming in September-November 2024 at 71%. Capital Economics and AccuWeather warn that agricultural regions of Argentina, Uruguay and southeast Brazil are most at risk of dryness if the event develops.

- Date: 2024-09-12 · published 2024-09-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region South America · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/28233-la-nina-weather-71-likely-to-develop-in-sept-nov-says-us-forecaster-reuters
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Dry weather over the South American summer crop belt would threaten soybean and corn output, which supports meal and grain prices. The risk depends on whether the typical La Niña pattern actually materializes.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-10-09 | [US National Weather Service says La Nina conditions likely to persist through Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22312-us-national-weather-service-says-la-nina-conditions-likely-to-persist-through.md) | -2.2% | +8.8% |
| SOY | 2024-10-10 | [US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27778-us-forecaster-sees-60-chance-of-la-nina-weather-in-september-november.md) | -3.9% | -2.5% |
| SOY | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30149-el-nino-to-end-by-june-la-nina-seen-in-second-half-of-2024-says-u-s-forecaster.md) | +0.1% | -1.1% |
| SOY | 2026-05-14 | [US forecaster says El Nino has 82% chance of developing by July \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19187-us-forecaster-says-el-nino-has-82-chance-of-developing-by-july-reuters.md) | -1.3% | -8.2% |
| SOY | 2024-02-08 | [El Nino waning, La Nina to develop in second half of 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31586-el-nino-waning-la-nina-to-develop-in-second-half-of-2024.md) | -1.6% | -2.7% |
| CORN | 2025-10-09 | [US National Weather Service says La Nina conditions likely to persist through Dec 2025 to Feb 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22312-us-national-weather-service-says-la-nina-conditions-likely-to-persist-through.md) | -0.9% | +0.9% |
| CORN | 2024-10-10 | [US forecaster sees 60% chance of La Niña weather in September-November](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27778-us-forecaster-sees-60-chance-of-la-nina-weather-in-september-november.md) | -2.6% | +0.4% |
| CORN | 2024-05-09 | [El Nino to end by June, La Nina seen in second half of 2024, says U.S. forecaster \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30149-el-nino-to-end-by-june-la-nina-seen-in-second-half-of-2024-says-u-s-forecaster.md) | +2.7% | +0.5% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/la-nina-weather-71-likely-develop-sept-nov-says-us-forecaster-2024-09-12/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.