# Russia exits Black Sea Grain Initiative

> Russia withdraws from the corridor and strikes Odesa port infrastructure; wheat spikes.

- Date: 2023-07-17 · published 2023-07-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/28-russia-exits-black-sea-grain-initiative
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-19 | 5 | +17.1% | 3.7 | Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and strikes on Odesa port infrastructure threatened Ukrainian wheat export flows, tightening expected global supply and driving a sharp risk-premium rally in SRW wheat within the 5-day window. |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-19 | 1 | +8.5% | 3.2 | Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and its strikes on Odesa port infrastructure threatened Ukrainian wheat export flows, tightening expected global supply and driving a sharp risk-premium rally in SRW wheat futures within days of the event. |
| CORN | 2023-07-24 | 5 | +16.0% | 5.8 | Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and strikes on Odesa threatened Ukrainian corn exports (a major global supplier), tightening expected trade flows and lifting corn prices within the 5-day window. |
| CORN | 2023-07-24 | 1 | +14.0% | 7.3 | Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and subsequent strikes on Ukrainian ports, including Danube export facilities around July 24, threatened Ukrainian corn export flows and drove a trade-flow and risk-premium rally in corn, though the 7-day lag suggests the escalating attacks and US weather were likely co-drivers. |
| KWHEAT | 2023-07-23 | 1 | +6.8% | 3.2 | Russia's exit from the Black Sea Grain Initiative and its strikes on Odesa port infrastructure raised export-disruption risk and set up the rally, but it occurred several days before the move. |
| WHEAT | 2023-08-01 | 5 | -14.2% | -2.9 | The Black Sea Grain Initiative exit and the Danube/Odesa strikes built a geopolitical risk premium that peaked around July 25. The late-July drop most plausibly reflects that sentiment-driven premium unwinding as Russian export supply stayed ample and Ukrainian flows rerouted, so the event is only an indirect contributor rather than a direct bearish driver. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2022-07-22 | [Black Sea Grain Initiative signed](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22-black-sea-grain-initiative-signed.md) | -10.2% | -1.7% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-28 | [Does Ukraine Need a New Black Sea Grain Initiative?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14221-does-ukraine-need-a-new-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | -1.4% | +2.0% |
| WHEAT | 2021-02-21 | [Ukraine, Russia ink deal to export grain on Black Sea](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48492-ukraine-russia-ink-deal-to-export-grain-on-black-sea.md) | +0.7% | -0.7% |
| WHEAT | 2023-02-27 | [Ukraine seeks changes to the Black Sea Grain Initiative](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14418-ukraine-seeks-changes-to-the-black-sea-grain-initiative.md) | -2.4% | -7.4% |
| WHEAT | 2023-03-18 | [Black Sea Grain Initiative extended on deadline day \| UN News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14406-black-sea-grain-initiative-extended-on-deadline-day-un-news.md) | -3.3% | +1.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-07-22 | [Black Sea Grain Initiative signed](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22-black-sea-grain-initiative-signed.md) | +3.3% | -5.7% |
| KWHEAT | 2023-07-17 | [Black Sea grain deal expires after Russia quits \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7057-black-sea-grain-deal-expires-after-russia-quits-reuters.md) | +6.3% | -6.6% |
| KWHEAT | 2022-10-31 | [Wheat futures jump, hitting record high in Sydney, after Russia exits Black Sea deal - Grain Price News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39157-wheat-futures-jump-hitting-record-high-in-sydney-after-russia-exits-black-sea.md) | +3.1% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea_Grain_Initiative

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.