# Australian winter crop forecast – slight uptick, but weather woes temper size of harvest

> Rabobank's 2024/25 Australian winter crop forecast puts total production at 47.1 million tonnes, up 1% year on year but 13% below the five-year average. Drought-like conditions and late frosts cut output in South Australia and Victoria, while Queensland and New South Wales rose sharply.

- Date: 2024-10-22 · published 2024-10-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/27825-australian-winter-crop-forecast-slight-uptick-but-weather-woes-temper-size-of
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A crop below the five-year average tightens Australian wheat and barley export availability, which supports prices for buyers sourcing Australian grain.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- BARLEY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2021-09-10 | [Harvest starts on potential 54.8m tonne winter crop for Australia - ABC News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/45031-harvest-starts-on-potential-54-8m-tonne-winter-crop-for-australia-abc-news.md) | +3.6% | +5.7% |
| WHEAT | 2024-03-04 | [Australia wraps up winter wheat/canola harvest - MarketsFarm](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31173-australia-wraps-up-winter-wheat-canola-harvest-marketsfarm.md) | +7.2% | -0.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-05-02 | [South Australian final crop estimate rises slightly](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64983-south-australian-final-crop-estimate-rises-slightly.md) | -3.4% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2023-12-04 | [Australian crops improve, but well off recent records - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32669-australian-crops-improve-but-well-off-recent-records-agcanada.md) | +0.5% | -0.5% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-11 | [COCERAL advanced the forecast for the wheat harvest in the EU and UK in 2026](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18757-coceral-advanced-the-forecast-for-the-wheat-harvest-in-the-eu-and-uk-in-2026.md) | +4.1% | +2.3% |

## Sources

- rabobank.com.au: https://www.rabobank.com.au/news/media-releases/2024/australian-winter-crop-forecast-slight-uptick-but-weather-woes-temper-size-of-harvest

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.