# Barrelling Ahead: Conditional Consensus - by Rory Johnston

> A paid newsletter analysis argues that OPEC+'s scheduled 2.2 MMbpd increase would push the market into oversupply in 2025 if executed. It suggests a smaller 1.1 MMbpd easing pace as a middle ground and notes that murmurs of another delay are circulating.

- Date: 2024-10-31 · published 2024-10-31T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/27771-barrelling-ahead-conditional-consensus-by-rory-johnston
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Commentary on the likely December OPEC+ decision signals that a delay is expected, which underpins crude prices and energy costs for feed buyers.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: neutral
- BRENT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2018-02-27 | [Oil beyond 2018: what lies ahead for 'Super Opec' \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66430-oil-beyond-2018-what-lies-ahead-for-super-opec-the-national.md) | -2.1% | +2.6% |
| WTI | 2026-10-05 | [OPEC+ Holds November Quota at 31.01 Million Barrels Daily \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17060-opec-holds-november-quota-at-31-01-million-barrels-daily-investing-com.md) | +0.8% | +8.4% |
| WTI | 2021-02-02 | [OPEC+ calm ahead of committee meeting as oil prices rise, but tough decisions loom \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48555-opec-calm-ahead-of-committee-meeting-as-oil-prices-rise-but-tough-decisions.md) | +8.2% | +11.5% |
| WTI | 2025-05-28 | [OPEC+ holds oil quotas ahead of July production review](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24603-opec-holds-oil-quotas-ahead-of-july-production-review.md) | +4.1% | +6.9% |
| WTI | 2021-02-05 | [2020 Energy Prices Complicated by Ag Products, Renewable Credits and Other Relationships - OPIS, A Dow Jones Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48514-2020-energy-prices-complicated-by-ag-products-renewable-credits-and-other.md) | +3.6% | +17.6% |
| BRENT | 2018-02-27 | [Oil beyond 2018: what lies ahead for 'Super Opec' \| The National](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66430-oil-beyond-2018-what-lies-ahead-for-super-opec-the-national.md) | -3.1% | +2.6% |
| BRENT | 2026-10-05 | [OPEC+ Holds November Quota at 31.01 Million Barrels Daily \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17060-opec-holds-november-quota-at-31-01-million-barrels-daily-investing-com.md) | -0.9% | +2.2% |
| BRENT | 2021-02-02 | [OPEC+ calm ahead of committee meeting as oil prices rise, but tough decisions loom \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48555-opec-calm-ahead-of-committee-meeting-as-oil-prices-rise-but-tough-decisions.md) | +7.1% | +13.7% |

## Sources

- commoditycontext.com: https://www.commoditycontext.com/p/conditional-consensus

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.