# COMMODITIES 2025: Rice prices likely to be pressured by large harvest, end to India export ban

> S&P Global expects rice prices to be pressured in 2025 by India's bumper kharif harvest and its decision to lift the white rice export ban and scrap the parboiled export duty. Traders say the Indian market will stay bearish until the first quarter of 2025, and exports from Pakistan are projected to fall 12.3% year on year. Indonesia's rice imports are expected to drop to 2 million tonnes in 2024-25.

- Date: 2024-12-11 · published 2024-12-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region India · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26927-commodities-2025-rice-prices-likely-to-be-pressured-by-large-harvest-end-to
- Commodities: [Rough Rice](https://feedsoft.ai/c/RICE.md)

## Why it matters

Renewed Indian supply competes directly with other exporters' rice and lowers global rice prices, cutting into the value of rice-based feed ingredients.

## Read by commodity

- RICE: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| RICE | 2025-12-12 | [COMMODITIES 2026: India's surplus rice supply to weigh on global prices, reshape trade in Q1 \| S&P Global](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21591-commodities-2026-india-s-surplus-rice-supply-to-weigh-on-global-prices-reshape.md) | -2.5% | +1.7% |
| RICE | 2021-07-19 | [India’s rice exports likely to top last year’s performance  - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46029-india-s-rice-exports-likely-to-top-last-year-s-performance-the-hindubusinessline.md) | +2.9% | +2.3% |
| RICE | 2026-01-10 | [India's 2025 rice exports surge 19.4% to 21.55 ‍mt as curbs are lifted - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12590-india-s-2025-rice-exports-surge-19-4-to-21-55-mt-as-curbs-are-lifted-the.md) | +6.2% | +12.1% |
| RICE | 2022-06-02 | [Exclusive \| India pushes for rice exports as bumper harvest swells supply](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40905-exclusive-india-pushes-for-rice-exports-as-bumper-harvest-swells-supply.md) | -1.3% | -4.1% |
| RICE | 2019-10-11 | [India’s Rice Exports Drops 29% due to Less Demand from African Countries](https://feedsoft.ai/events/56516-india-s-rice-exports-drops-29-due-to-less-demand-from-african-countries.md) | -0.4% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/commodity-insights/en/news-research/latest-news/agriculture/121124-commodities-2025-rice-prices-likely-to-be-pressured-by-large-harvest-end-to-india-export-ban

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.