# US forecaster sees 59% chance of weak, brief La Nina forming by January

> The US Climate Prediction Center gives a 59% chance of a weak, short-lived La Nina forming in the November-January period. The agency said weak events are less likely to bring conventional winter impacts.

- Date: 2024-12-12 · published 2024-12-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26863-us-forecaster-sees-59-chance-of-weak-brief-la-nina-forming-by-january
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

A weak La Nina carries limited risk of drought for Argentina and Brazil, so it adds little supply premium to soybeans and corn, keeping prices pressured by ample supply.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral
- WHEAT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2024-11-14 | [US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27326-us-forecaster-sees-57-chance-of-la-nina-developing-between-now-and-december.md) | -1.4% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2020-05-14 | [U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53048-u-s-forecaster-sees-65-chance-for-no-el-nino-la-nina-during-summer.md) | +1.3% | +3.6% |
| SOY | 2026-02-12 | [US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20517-us-forecaster-sees-signs-of-la-nina-shift-towards-el-nino-conditions-in-early.md) | +1.5% | +7.9% |
| SOY | 2017-10-27 | [Models Agree on Brief La Nina](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68371-models-agree-on-brief-la-nina.md) | +1.8% | +2.3% |
| SOY | 2025-05-08 | [US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24587-us-cpc-sees-74-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-through-june-august-reuters.md) | +3.5% | +2.1% |
| CORN | 2024-11-14 | [US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27326-us-forecaster-sees-57-chance-of-la-nina-developing-between-now-and-december.md) | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| CORN | 2020-05-14 | [U.S. forecaster sees 65% chance for no El Nino, La Nina during summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53048-u-s-forecaster-sees-65-chance-for-no-el-nino-la-nina-during-summer.md) | -0.0% | +1.8% |
| CORN | 2026-02-12 | [US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20517-us-forecaster-sees-signs-of-la-nina-shift-towards-el-nino-conditions-in-early.md) | -0.0% | +3.5% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/us-forecaster-sees-59-chance-la-nina-developing-between-nov-2024-jan-2025-2024-12-12/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.