# Urea Sector - Earnings to grow from VAT law change, lower YoY gas prices - Vietcap

> Vietcap maintains a 2025 forecast of USD350/tonne for the average Middle East urea price, up 4% year on year. The forecast reflects higher gas prices, a 3% fall in global exports, and a modest recovery in demand. Vietcap also sees prices normalizing toward USD330/tonne for 2026 to 2029.

- Date: 2025-01-17 · published 2025-01-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26813-urea-sector-earnings-to-grow-from-vat-law-change-lower-yoy-gas-prices-vietcap
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast rise in urea prices in 2025 increases nitrogen fertilizer costs for grain growers, which can support corn prices over time. The outlook is an equity research view rather than a near-term supply event.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2025-02-27 | [What's driving urea prices for farmers? \| Global Perspective \| The Land \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26363-what-s-driving-urea-prices-for-farmers-global-perspective-the-land-nsw.md) | -3.6% | -4.9% |
| UREA | 2025-02-21 | [Friday’s Insider: Urea and gas prices — market in transition — Fertilizer Daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26365-friday-s-insider-urea-and-gas-prices-market-in-transition-fertilizer-daily.md) | -0.5% | -4.7% |
| UREA | 2025-03-02 | [What’s driving up higher urea prices?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25510-what-s-driving-up-higher-urea-prices.md) | -3.6% | -4.7% |
| UREA | 2022-05-11 | [Fertilizer prices expected to remain higher for longer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41325-fertilizer-prices-expected-to-remain-higher-for-longer.md) | -0.8% | -18.1% |
| UREA | 2026-10-28 | [European natural gas prices soar: What it means for your winter bills](https://feedsoft.ai/events/625-european-natural-gas-prices-soar-what-it-means-for-your-winter-bills.md) | -1.3% | — |

## Sources

- vietcap.com.vn: https://www.vietcap.com.vn/en/research-center/urea-sector-earnings-to-grow-from-vat-law-change-lower-yoy-gas-prices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.