# Markets are betting China will let yuan fall as Trump takes power, but not much | Reuters

> Yuan forward pricing, interest rate derivatives and analyst forecasts indicate China is allowing a slow depreciation of the yuan against a broadly stronger dollar ahead of Trump's second term. Sell-side analysts see a 5-6% decline from current levels by year end. The yuan has hovered near 16-month lows and has fallen for three straight years.

- Date: 2025-01-17 · published 2025-01-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26716-markets-are-betting-china-will-let-yuan-fall-as-trump-takes-power-but-not-much
- Commodities: [Chinese Yuan (CNY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCNY.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker yuan makes Chinese buyers less price-sensitive to dollar-priced imports only if it is offset elsewhere; a gradual depreciation tends to reduce Chinese import demand appetite for US feed grains and meal at the margin, while supporting Brazilian and other competing origins.

## Read by commodity

- USDCNY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDCNY | 2024-11-12 | [China’s yuan weakens to 3-1/2-month low as Trump tariff threat weighs - Markets - Business Recorder](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6701-china-s-yuan-weakens-to-3-1-2-month-low-as-trump-tariff-threat-weighs-markets.md) | +0.8% | +1.0% |
| USDCNY | 2024-12-11 | [EXCLUSIVE: Chinese authorities are considering a weaker yuan as Trump trade risks loom \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27164-exclusive-chinese-authorities-are-considering-a-weaker-yuan-as-trump-trade.md) | +0.5% | +1.1% |
| USDCNY | 2016-11-16 | [Yuan falls to 8-year low as China-critic Trump prepares to take office](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7738-yuan-falls-to-8-year-low-as-china-critic-trump-prepares-to-take-office.md) | +0.5% | +0.7% |
| USDCNY | 2019-08-09 | [China lowers yuan mid-point to fresh 11-year low, but higher than forecasts \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8381-china-lowers-yuan-mid-point-to-fresh-11-year-low-but-higher-than-forecasts.md) | -0.2% | +1.0% |
| USDCNY | 2018-11-01 | [China to defend 7 yuan per dollar rate, but may find it tough: Reuters poll](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62264-china-to-defend-7-yuan-per-dollar-rate-but-may-find-it-tough-reuters-poll.md) | -0.8% | -0.3% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/markets/markets-are-betting-china-will-let-yuan-fall-trump-takes-power-not-much-2025-01-17/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.