# FX outlook: Tariffs drive USD strength, until...? | Saxo Bank Switzerland

> A Saxo Bank quarterly FX outlook argues that the Trump administration plans to use the dollar's dominance and tariffs as trade tools, and expects the first quarter of 2025 to be volatile. It warns that a strong dollar driven by tariffs could tighten financial conditions for emerging markets.

- Date: 2025-01-15 · published 2025-01-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26700-fx-outlook-tariffs-drive-usd-strength-until-saxo-bank-switzerland
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A sustained strong dollar tends to pressure dollar-denominated feed commodity prices and strain emerging-market feed importers' purchasing power. Tariff-driven volatility adds risk to trade flows.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: bullish ▲
- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2022-06-14 | [EUR/USD rate approaches yearly low with Fed rate hike on tap \| IG Bank Switzerland](https://feedsoft.ai/events/9638-eur-usd-rate-approaches-yearly-low-with-fed-rate-hike-on-tap-ig-bank-switzerland.md) | -0.4% | +1.8% |
| DXY | 2021-11-17 | [G10 FX Outlook 2022: Mid-cycle dollar strength \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43960-g10-fx-outlook-2022-mid-cycle-dollar-strength-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.8% | +1.1% |
| DXY | 2022-09-20 | [Australian dollar steady ahead of Fed and BoJ \| IG Bank Switzerland](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39842-australian-dollar-steady-ahead-of-fed-and-boj-ig-bank-switzerland.md) | +2.8% | +2.3% |
| DXY | 2022-09-08 | [The Commodities Feed: USD strength and demand worries \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/14903-the-commodities-feed-usd-strength-and-demand-worries-articles-ing-think.md) | -0.3% | +1.6% |
| DXY | 2020-09-17 | [Yuan falls on dollar strength after Fed's upbeat economic outlook \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51315-yuan-falls-on-dollar-strength-after-fed-s-upbeat-economic-outlook-financial-post.md) | +1.6% | +0.6% |
| CORN | 2018-06-25 | [COT Dollar strength and trade fears trigger big changes across forex and commodities \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11644-cot-dollar-strength-and-trade-fears-trigger-big-changes-across-forex-and.md) | -1.1% | -3.7% |
| CORN | 2022-09-29 | [Global poultry outlook strong despite challenges - Rabobank
						 \| The Poultry Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39737-global-poultry-outlook-strong-despite-challenges-rabobank-the-poultry-site.md) | +1.7% | +4.0% |
| CORN | 2024-11-27 | [Outlook 2025 LATAM FX: MXN, CLP, and COP Under Uncertainty \| Pepperstone](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27672-outlook-2025-latam-fx-mxn-clp-and-cop-under-uncertainty-pepperstone.md) | -0.1% | +6.2% |

## Sources

- home.saxo: https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/content/articles/quarterly-outlook/fx-outlook-tariffs-drive-usd-strength-until-15012025

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.