# Latam FX Talking: Don’t trust the rally | ING THINK

> ING says Brazil's real has recouped late-2024 losses through heavy FX intervention and nearly 300bp of rate hikes, with the policy rate at 13.25%. It warns tariffs could restrain carry trade inflows and forecasts USD/BRL rising to 6.00, while the Mexican peso looks vulnerable to 25% US tariffs.

- Date: 2025-02-14 · published 2025-02-14T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26257-latam-fx-talking-don-t-trust-the-rally-ing-think
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Mexican Peso (MXN per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDMXN.md)

## Why it matters

A forecast weaker dollar-real rate would lift Brazilian export competitiveness for soy and meal, while tariff risk on Mexico, a major US meat and feed buyer, adds demand uncertainty for livestock feed.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bullish ▲
- USDMXN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2023-10-09 | [Latam FX Talking: Carry trade unwind recommends caution \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33831-latam-fx-talking-carry-trade-unwind-recommends-caution-ing-think.md) | -1.9% | -5.1% |
| USDBRL | 2022-11-16 | [Latam FX Outlook 2023: Too good to be true? \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38887-latam-fx-outlook-2023-too-good-to-be-true-articles-ing-think.md) | +0.5% | -0.6% |
| USDBRL | 2024-04-17 | [FX Daily: The big unwinding \| articles \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30940-fx-daily-the-big-unwinding-articles-ing-think.md) | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| USDBRL | 2021-12-15 | [Latam FX drops on rising U.S. interest rate risk \| Central bank \| NDA News UK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43877-latam-fx-drops-on-rising-u-s-interest-rate-risk-central-bank-nda-news-uk.md) | +1.3% | -2.8% |
| USDBRL | 2022-09-13 | [Latam FX slump as hot U.S. inflation sends dollar soaring \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39796-latam-fx-slump-as-hot-u-s-inflation-sends-dollar-soaring-financial-post.md) | +0.4% | +1.1% |

## Sources

- think.ing.com: https://think.ing.com/articles/latam-fx-talking-february-2025/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.