# Analysis: Exchange rate caught between external factors and fiscal risks

> The Brazilian real weakened against the dollar again after a rally that took it from R$6.18 at end-2024 to an average of R$5.70 last week; the dollar stood at R$5.80 on February 25. Analysts attribute moves to domestic fiscal news, US policy and interest rate spreads, with reports that the Lula government may expand fiscal and credit policies.

- Date: 2025-02-25 · published 2025-02-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26254-analysis-exchange-rate-caught-between-external-factors-and-fiscal-risks
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker real makes Brazilian soy, meal and corn exports more competitive, which tends to pressure global feed grain and meal prices. Fiscal stimulus concerns add to currency volatility that feeds into Brazilian export pricing.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bearish ▼
- USDBRL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2022-06-14 | [Analysis: Exchange rate unlikely to mean trouble for Brazil’s Central Bank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11313-analysis-exchange-rate-unlikely-to-mean-trouble-for-brazil-s-central-bank.md) | +0.7% | +5.4% |
| USDBRL | 2025-07-28 | [Dollar approaches R$5,60 again, driven by external factors after agreement between the US and EU \| Brasil 247](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24001-dollar-approaches-r-5-60-again-driven-by-external-factors-after-agreement.md) | -0.4% | -2.6% |
| USDBRL | 2024-04-17 | [Haddad blames external factors for weakened real](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11279-haddad-blames-external-factors-for-weakened-real.md) | -1.4% | -2.5% |
| USDBRL | 2026-10-01 | [Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17671-brazilian-real-exchange-rate-seen-weaker-into-year-end-rabobank.md) | -3.5% | +4.1% |
| USDBRL | 2020-05-15 | [Brazil Exchange Rate May 2020 - FocusEconomics](https://feedsoft.ai/events/53337-brazil-exchange-rate-may-2020-focuseconomics.md) | -5.4% | -15.1% |
| SBM | 2021-10-22 | [Unofficial exchange rate shows Argentina's de facto devaluation — MercoPress](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44847-unofficial-exchange-rate-shows-argentina-s-de-facto-devaluation-mercopress.md) | +1.5% | +11.6% |
| SBM | 2026-10-01 | [Brazilian Real: Exchange rate seen weaker into year-end – Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17671-brazilian-real-exchange-rate-seen-weaker-into-year-end-rabobank.md) | +3.2% | +0.5% |
| SBM | 2026-10-29 | [The sharp fall in the real exchange rate has caused soybean meal prices to collapse in Brazil and China, which is increasing pressure on prices in Ukraine.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/1392-the-sharp-fall-in-the-real-exchange-rate-has-caused-soybean-meal-prices-to.md) | -3.3% | — |

## Sources

- valorinternational.globo.com: https://valorinternational.globo.com/markets/news/2025/02/25/analysis-exchange-rate-caught-between-external-factors-and-fiscal-risks.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.