# Biodiesel production to decline in 2025 due to declining profitability – Milke

> Oil World analyst Thomas Mielke expects global biodiesel and HVO production to decline in 2025 by about 0.5 million tons, versus average growth of roughly 4 million tons per year, as feedstock prices have risen faster than diesel. He doubts Indonesia can meet its B40 mandate and says Brazil has suspended a planned blend increase.

- Date: 2025-02-27 · published 2025-02-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26121-biodiesel-production-to-decline-in-2025-due-to-declining-profitability-milke
- Commodities: [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md), [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Weaker biodiesel margins reduce feedstock demand for palm oil and soybean oil, while a lower Indonesian mandate push would ease vegetable oil prices.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- PALMOIL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| PALMOIL | 2017-08-07 | [2017 biodiesel production forecast for Malaysia revised down - Biofuels International Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69315-2017-biodiesel-production-forecast-for-malaysia-revised-down-biofuels.md) | +1.6% | +4.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2021-03-23 | [Malaysia's biodiesel exports in 2021 seen falling to four-year low](https://feedsoft.ai/events/47982-malaysia-s-biodiesel-exports-in-2021-seen-falling-to-four-year-low.md) | -0.5% | -2.8% |
| PALMOIL | 2017-07-19 | [Malaysia to export excess biodiesel products - The Malaysian Reserve](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69838-malaysia-to-export-excess-biodiesel-products-the-malaysian-reserve.md) | +1.4% | +4.0% |
| PALMOIL | 2019-03-12 | [Phasing-out palm oil biodiesel is compatible with WTO due to… \| T&E](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60110-phasing-out-palm-oil-biodiesel-is-compatible-with-wto-due-to-t-and-e.md) | -0.6% | +2.9% |
| PALMOIL | 2023-11-27 | [Soybean oil prices fall 4% amid possible reduction in demand from the biodiesel industry](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33251-soybean-oil-prices-fall-4-amid-possible-reduction-in-demand-from-the-biodiesel.md) | +1.0% | -2.4% |
| SBO | 2020-11-23 | [Brazil allows imported soy in biodiesel production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50029-brazil-allows-imported-soy-in-biodiesel-production.md) | -2.0% | +3.4% |
| SBO | 2020-11-18 | [Brazil allows imported raw materials in biodiesel production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50218-brazil-allows-imported-raw-materials-in-biodiesel-production.md) | +1.5% | +4.1% |
| SBO | 2017-10-08 | [Soy oil prices declining thanks to drops in U.S. government biodiesel mandates  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68541-soy-oil-prices-declining-thanks-to-drops-in-u-s-government-biodiesel-mandates.md) | +2.4% | +5.2% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/biodiesel-production-to-decline-in-2025-due-to-declining-profitability-milke/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.