# Biofuels face uncertainty after record year

> U.S. ethanol exports and soybean oil use for biofuels reached records in 2024. Analysts flag warning signs including a forecast 17% drop in biodiesel use for 2025 and softening ethanol margins.

- Date: 2025-02-05 · published 2025-02-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/26047-biofuels-face-uncertainty-after-record-year
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Expected biodiesel demand declines weigh on soybean oil, while uncertainty over biofuel policy and trade retaliation adds risk to corn and oil demand.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bearish ▼
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2025-03-20 | [North American biofuels sector contracts amid trade and policy uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15134-north-american-biofuels-sector-contracts-amid-trade-and-policy-uncertainty.md) | +0.6% | +9.9% |
| SBO | 2019-12-20 | [EPA’s final 2020 RFS rule adds more uncertainty to US biofuel policy - Biofuels International Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55455-epa-s-final-2020-rfs-rule-adds-more-uncertainty-to-us-biofuel-policy-biofuels.md) | +2.8% | -3.1% |
| SBO | 2026-02-03 | [Grain trader ADM's 2026 profit forecast lags expectations amid US biofuel policy uncertainty \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15053-grain-trader-adm-s-2026-profit-forecast-lags-expectations-amid-us-biofuel.md) | +3.1% | +12.2% |
| SBO | 2026-01-16 | [US soybean oil prices stall amid biofuel policy, 45Z uncertainty: 2026 preview - Fastmarkets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15055-us-soybean-oil-prices-stall-amid-biofuel-policy-45z-uncertainty-2026-preview.md) | +1.3% | +6.8% |
| SBO | 2026-01-30 | [Biofuels policy uncertainty continues to pressure soybean demand and prices - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15056-biofuels-policy-uncertainty-continues-to-pressure-soybean-demand-and-prices.md) | +0.8% | +9.0% |
| CORN | 2025-01-02 | [Biofuels Positioned for 2025 Success Despite Policy Uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/15150-biofuels-positioned-for-2025-success-despite-policy-uncertainty.md) | -0.5% | +5.7% |
| CORN | 2019-12-20 | [EPA’s final 2020 RFS rule adds more uncertainty to US biofuel policy - Biofuels International Magazine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55455-epa-s-final-2020-rfs-rule-adds-more-uncertainty-to-us-biofuel-policy-biofuels.md) | +0.8% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2025-12-05 | [Farm policy advances amid growing uncertainty](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21485-farm-policy-advances-amid-growing-uncertainty.md) | -0.4% | -0.0% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/marketing/biofuels-face-uncertainty-after-record-breaking-year

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.