# February 2025 La Niña update: La Niña today, gone tomorrow?

> NOAA's February 2025 ENSO update says La Niña is present but weak, with the Niño-3.4 index at -0.8 °C in January. Forecasters put a 66% chance on a shift to neutral in March–May.

- Date: 2025-03-01 · published 2025-03-01T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25960-february-2025-la-nina-update-la-nina-today-gone-tomorrow
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Palm Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PALMOIL.md)

## Why it matters

A weak, short La Niña that fades to neutral reduces the risk of a prolonged drought in key exporting regions. That lowers the weather premium that would otherwise support grain prices.

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2020-02-05 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2020)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54516-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2020.md) | -1.1% | -0.3% |
| CORN | 2022-03-01 | [El Niño / La Niña Update - February 2022](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42192-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2022.md) | +4.7% | +12.1% |
| CORN | 2019-02-26 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60530-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -1.5% | +0.9% |
| CORN | 2017-02-15 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (15 February 2017) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72415-el-nino-la-nina-update-15-february-2017-world-reliefweb.md) | +0.1% | -2.4% |
| CORN | 2021-05-13 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (May 2021)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46985-el-nino-la-nina-update-may-2021.md) | -7.7% | -2.2% |
| SOY | 2020-02-05 | [El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2020)](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54516-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2020.md) | +0.6% | +2.2% |
| SOY | 2022-03-01 | [El Niño / La Niña Update - February 2022](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42192-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2022.md) | +1.8% | +1.2% |
| SOY | 2019-02-26 | [WMO El Niño/La Niña Update (February 2019) - World \| ReliefWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/60530-wmo-el-nino-la-nina-update-february-2019-world-reliefweb.md) | -0.9% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- climate.gov: https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/february-2025-la-nina-update-la-nina-today-gone-tomorrow

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.