# Export Challenges and Cheese Surplus Weigh on Dairy Market | Red River Farm Network

> Analyst Sarina Sharp told producers at the Central Plains Dairy Expo that lower Class III prices are the more likely path. She cited rising cheese production and cautious international buyers amid trade policy uncertainty.

- Date: 2025-03-28 · published 2025-03-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25737-export-challenges-and-cheese-surplus-weigh-on-dairy-market-red-river-farm
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Growing cheese output and cautious export buying weigh on Class III milk prices, reducing dairy demand for feed ingredients over time.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-04-01 | 1 | -8.2% | -6.1 | Analyst expects lower Class III on rising cheese output and cautious export buyers, a bearish supply/demand backdrop that could amplify selling. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-03-28 | [Tariff Uncertainty Pressures Dairy Markets \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25735-tariff-uncertainty-pressures-dairy-markets-red-river-farm-network.md) | -9.0% | -6.5% |
| MILK | 2025-03-14 | [The Farmer's Exchange Online Tariffs Target U.S. Dairy's 3 Largest Export Markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25738-the-farmer-s-exchange-online-tariffs-target-u-s-dairy-s-3-largest-export-markets.md) | -0.3% | -7.3% |
| MILK | 2023-08-31 | [Exports Drive Dairy Prices Whey Up (and Down) - Farmer Mac](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34591-exports-drive-dairy-prices-whey-up-and-down-farmer-mac.md) | -1.5% | -2.6% |
| MILK | 2025-03-06 | [Dairy Markets Panic While Smart Farmers Cash In: Why 94% of Exports Remain Unaffected by Tariff Drama. \| The Bullvine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4708-dairy-markets-panic-while-smart-farmers-cash-in-why-94-of-exports-remain.md) | +1.8% | -6.1% |
| MILK | 2023-02-02 | [US cheese and dairy growth, prices on a downward trend - Food & Agribusiness](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5879-us-cheese-and-dairy-growth-prices-on-a-downward-trend-food-and-agribusiness.md) | -0.5% | -1.1% |

## Sources

- rrfn.com: https://www.rrfn.com/2025/03/27/export-challenges-and-cheese-surplus-weigh-on-dairy-market/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.