# 2024 Ethanol Production Profits: Regression to the Mean? - farmdoc daily

> A farmdoc daily analysis models a representative Iowa ethanol plant to estimate 2024 calendar-year profitability. The article asks whether the industry stayed at the high profits of 2021-2023 or reverted toward its long-run mean after ethanol prices fell in late 2023.

- Date: 2025-03-05 · published 2025-03-05T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25562-2024-ethanol-production-profits-regression-to-the-mean-farmdoc-daily
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [DDGS](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DDGS.md)

## Why it matters

Plant profitability drives how hard ethanol plants grind corn, which sets domestic corn and DDGS supply. Weaker margins tend to reduce grind and corn demand from the ethanol sector.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral
- DDGS: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-02-12 | [Another Strong Year for Ethanol Production Profits in 2023 - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31664-another-strong-year-for-ethanol-production-profits-in-2023-farmdoc-daily.md) | -1.8% | +3.5% |
| CORN | 2023-08-16 | [Ethanol production rises thanks to high crush margins  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34550-ethanol-production-rises-thanks-to-high-crush-margins-the-daily-digest.md) | +0.1% | -0.8% |
| CORN | 2026-10-29 | [Ethanol Production Hits Thirteen-Week High As Demand Falls -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/2072-ethanol-production-hits-thirteen-week-high-as-demand-falls.md) | -1.5% | — |
| CORN | 2022-04-12 | [April Update to 2022 Crop Budgets: Projected Profits Even with Record Costs - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13371-april-update-to-2022-crop-budgets-projected-profits-even-with-record-costs.md) | +5.0% | +1.4% |
| CORN | 2023-06-28 | [Ethanol production holds steady while stocks increase slightly  : The Daily Digest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35469-ethanol-production-holds-steady-while-stocks-increase-slightly-the-daily-digest.md) | -7.6% | -0.5% |

## Sources

- farmdocdaily.illinois.edu: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/03/2024-ethanol-production-profits-regression-to-the-mean.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.