# Fertilizers: US Deal Aims to Restore Russia’s Export Access, but Has Limited Effect on Prices | Morningstar

> Morningstar analysts say a US-Russia arrangement to exclude the Black Sea from the conflict would let Russia export fertilizer using EU ships if the EU approves. They expect limited price effects because Russian exports have already found markets in China and India. They also expect potash prices to rise in 2025 as Belarus and Russia cut production.

- Date: 2025-03-26 · published 2025-03-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Black Sea · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25508-fertilizers-us-deal-aims-to-restore-russia-s-export-access-but-has-limited
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md)

## Why it matters

Restored Russian fertilizer access adds supply that could cap prices, but the effect is expected to be small. Production cuts by Belarus and Russia support potash prices, which keeps input costs firm for feed-crop producers.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: neutral
- POTASH: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-10-01 | [A Wish List to Reset Fertilizer Prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17035-a-wish-list-to-reset-fertilizer-prices.md) | -6.6% | -4.1% |
| UREA | 2022-03-22 | [Nigerian billionaire Dangote launches $2.5 billion fertilizer plant as prices soar \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42567-nigerian-billionaire-dangote-launches-2-5-billion-fertilizer-plant-as-prices.md) | +0.4% | -0.7% |
| UREA | 2023-05-18 | [Russia remains dominant in fertilizer market \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35874-russia-remains-dominant-in-fertilizer-market-the-western-producer.md) | +0.1% | -20.1% |
| UREA | 2026-03-31 | [Farmers pay more for fertilisers despite no major shortage \| The Daily Star](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20477-farmers-pay-more-for-fertilisers-despite-no-major-shortage-the-daily-star.md) | +11.8% | +8.6% |
| UREA | 2026-08-11 | [Fertilizer Crisis Response Bulletin #24 – Argus’ Fertilizer Crisis Update - IFDC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17861-fertilizer-crisis-response-bulletin-24-argus-fertilizer-crisis-update-ifdc.md) | -1.4% | +12.2% |

## Sources

- morningstar.com: https://www.morningstar.com/stocks/fertilizers-us-deal-aims-restore-russias-export-access-has-limited-effect-prices

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.