# Will Sky-High Phosphate Prices Spell Disaster for Farmers?

> StoneX's Josh Linville says Chinese phosphate exports have collapsed, with January-February volumes at just 98,000 tonnes, far below typical annual levels of 9-10 million. India's urgent restocking, including a $700 CFR DAP purchase from Russia, has pushed phosphate prices to a 15-year high. Tight North American nitrogen inventories add further supply strain through summer.

- Date: 2025-04-16 · published 2025-04-16T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25436-will-sky-high-phosphate-prices-spell-disaster-for-farmers
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [TSP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/TSP.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

Limited Chinese export availability combined with strong Indian buying keeps phosphate and DAP prices elevated, raising input costs for feed grain and oilseed producers. Tight nitrogen supply also supports urea and corn cost expectations.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- TSP: bullish ▲
- CORN: neutral
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2025-05-20 | [Will Tight Phosphate Supply Block a Summer Price Reset?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24593-will-tight-phosphate-supply-block-a-summer-price-reset.md) | +1.4% | +6.6% |
| DAP | 2020-08-10 | [Phosphate prices up as Mosaic pushes for duties](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51543-phosphate-prices-up-as-mosaic-pushes-for-duties.md) | +3.4% | +11.1% |
| DAP | 2021-11-01 | [Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5552-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates.md) | +7.8% | +10.0% |
| DAP | 2022-01-01 | [Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43478-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates.md) | -0.1% | -4.8% |
| DAP | 2022-07-03 | [Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40811-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphates.md) | +4.0% | -0.7% |
| UREA | 2024-02-28 | [March '24 Farmer Fertilizer Focus - Phosphate](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4295-march-24-farmer-fertilizer-focus-phosphate.md) | +7.6% | +9.1% |
| UREA | 2021-10-05 | [Farmers face fertiliser shortages, higher prices after China export ban \| VIC](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5913-farmers-face-fertiliser-shortages-higher-prices-after-china-export-ban-vic.md) | +6.2% | +11.5% |
| UREA | 2025-04-28 | [Fertilizer Prices Surge as Spring Imports Drive Urea, Phosphate, Potash \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/4274-fertilizer-prices-surge-as-spring-imports-drive-urea-phosphate-potash-cz-app.md) | +13.4% | +10.6% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-us/insights/04-16-2025-will-sky-high-phosphate-prices-spell-disaster-for-farmers/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.