# Analysts forecast a decrease in wheat production in Australia in the new season

> A Reuters survey of five analysts and traders forecasts Australian wheat production in the 2025/26 season at about 28.6 million tonnes on average, roughly 16% below the prior record harvest. Forecasts range from 27 to 30.75 million tonnes, and ABARES estimated 30.5 million tonnes in March. Drought is cutting soil moisture in parts of the country, with South Australia and Victoria facing the most severe dryness.

- Date: 2025-04-02 · published 2025-04-02T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25087-analysts-forecast-a-decrease-in-wheat-production-in-australia-in-the-new-season
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

A smaller Australian crop reduces exportable wheat supply just as the new marketing year begins, which tends to support world wheat prices. Buyers relying on wheat and barley for feed should expect firmer offers if the dryness persists.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-07-28 | [Australia forecasts 34% decline in wheat production](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35012-australia-forecasts-34-decline-in-wheat-production.md) | -0.1% | -2.1% |
| WHEAT | 2023-11-30 | [Forecasts of a decrease in the production of wheat and rapeseed in the EU in 2024/25 MY support quotations](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33128-forecasts-of-a-decrease-in-the-production-of-wheat-and-rapeseed-in-the-eu-in.md) | +1.2% | +0.0% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-19 | [Wheat production forecasts diminishing \| The Land \| NSW](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64495-wheat-production-forecasts-diminishing-the-land-nsw.md) | -0.7% | -3.1% |
| WHEAT | 2018-06-13 | [Australia cuts wheat production forecast \| World-grain.com \| June 12, 2018 20:28 \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64493-australia-cuts-wheat-production-forecast-world-grain-com-june-12-2018-20-28.md) | -2.0% | -8.2% |
| WHEAT | 2017-08-08 | [Wheat production forecast down: NAB - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69415-wheat-production-forecast-down-nab-grain-central.md) | +0.5% | -0.8% |

## Sources

- ukragroconsult.com: https://ukragroconsult.com/en/news/analysts-predict-a-decrease-in-wheat-production-in-australia-in-the-new-season/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.