# Trade instability likely to tighten 2025 crop profit margins says FCC - AgCanada

> Farm Credit Canada economists say tight 2025-26 crop margins are likely to tighten further because of trade instability. They estimate Western canola and wheat returns at $50 to $75 per acre, with canola losing $25 per acre if prices fall 15%. Canola futures fell more than 10% after China announced its tariffs before rebounding.

- Date: 2025-04-11 · published 2025-04-11T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Canada · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25077-trade-instability-likely-to-tighten-2025-crop-profit-margins-says-fcc-agcanada
- Commodities: [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Thin margins and price downside risk could shift canola and wheat acreage in Western Canada, changing 2025 supply. Canola futures have already shown sharp sensitivity to tariff headlines.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- CANMEAL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2018-10-26 | [Trade retaliations against the U.S. hit Canada farmers, too](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62522-trade-retaliations-against-the-u-s-hit-canada-farmers-too.md) | +0.8% | -3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2018-10-26 | [U.S.-Canada trade war means more market share, but smaller profits for Canadian farmers  \| Globalnews.ca](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62527-u-s-canada-trade-war-means-more-market-share-but-smaller-profits-for-canadian.md) | +0.8% | -3.7% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-08 | [Winning at the border on trade - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/68927-winning-at-the-border-on-trade-agcanada.md) | +3.4% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2018-01-03 | [Ag groups see trade, farm bill among top challenges in 2018 \| 2018-01-02 \| Agri-Pulse \| Agri-Pulse Communications, Inc.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/66972-ag-groups-see-trade-farm-bill-among-top-challenges-in-2018-2018-01-02-agri.md) | -0.2% | +3.2% |
| WHEAT | 2022-04-11 | [Indian broken rice exports likely to face supply problems - The HinduBusinessLine](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41915-indian-broken-rice-exports-likely-to-face-supply-problems-the-hindubusinessline.md) | -2.4% | +3.1% |

## Sources

- agcanada.com: https://www.agcanada.com/daily/trade-instability-likely-to-tighten-2025-crop-profit-margins-says-fcc

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.