# Commodities weekly: Tariff-led recession pain triggers sharp reversal | Saxo Bank Switzerland

> Saxo Bank's weekly commodities review describes a sharp selloff after Trump's broad tariffs raised recession fears. Crude prices fell on recession risk and an accelerated OPEC+ output increase, and the commodity annual gain was roughly halved.

- Date: 2025-04-04 · published 2025-04-04T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25046-commodities-weekly-tariff-led-recession-pain-triggers-sharp-reversal-saxo-bank
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md), [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md)

## Why it matters

Lower crude prices reduce biofuel feedstock values and feed-input costs, and recession fears dampen overall commodity demand. Trade retaliation adds supply-chain disruption risk.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: bearish ▼
- BRENT: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2025-04-07 | 5 | -15.6% | -5.6 | The weekly review ties the sharp commodity selloff to tariff-driven recession fears and the OPEC+ output boost. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WTI | 2022-07-01 | [WCU: Peak recession fears bring commodities down to earth \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40401-wcu-peak-recession-fears-bring-commodities-down-to-earth-saxo.md) | -0.9% | -6.2% |
| WTI | 2023-04-21 | [Commodity Weekly: April losses led by grains and industrial metals \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10364-commodity-weekly-april-losses-led-by-grains-and-industrial-metals-saxo.md) | -3.2% | -7.0% |
| WTI | 2019-08-21 | [Weekly Pricing Pulse: Recession worries undercut commodity prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57752-weekly-pricing-pulse-recession-worries-undercut-commodity-prices.md) | -2.2% | +5.4% |
| WTI | 2020-03-20 | [Commodity weekly \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7426-commodity-weekly-saxo.md) | -26.8% | -27.2% |
| WTI | 2022-09-26 | [Commodity prices down last week amid hawkish monetary policies, recession fears](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11907-commodity-prices-down-last-week-amid-hawkish-monetary-policies-recession-fears.md) | +1.0% | +8.1% |
| BRENT | 2020-03-20 | [Commodity weekly \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7426-commodity-weekly-saxo.md) | -4.7% | -9.9% |
| BRENT | 2020-02-28 | [Commodity weekly Gold shines as the clouds darken \| Saxo](https://feedsoft.ai/events/54506-commodity-weekly-gold-shines-as-the-clouds-darken-saxo.md) | -3.0% | -52.3% |
| BRENT | 2022-07-08 | [Oil rises 2% but posts weekly loss on recession fears](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12617-oil-rises-2-but-posts-weekly-loss-on-recession-fears.md) | -5.1% | -11.8% |

## Sources

- home.saxo: https://www.home.saxo/en-ch/content/articles/commodities/commodities-weekly-tariff-led-recession-pain-triggers-sharp-reversal-04042025

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.