# RaboResearch’s 2025 Global Fertilizer Outlook: Prices Up, Affordability Down

> RaboResearch's semi-annual fertilizer outlook projects a shift to tougher affordability in the second half of 2025, with its affordability index turning negative in January. Restricted Chinese exports are limiting phosphate tonnage, which is also affecting nitrogen markets.

- Date: 2025-04-28 · published 2025-04-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25031-raboresearch-s-2025-global-fertilizer-outlook-prices-up-affordability-down
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Negative affordability and constrained phosphate supply point to elevated fertilizer prices, and eventual demand cuts from weaker farmer purchasing power could later soften input prices.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2026-04-07 | [Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook - Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20027-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-rabobank.md) | +0.7% | +5.9% |
| DAP | 2020-12-10 | [Rabobank provides semi-annual global fertilizer outlook \| World Fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49586-rabobank-provides-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-world-fertilizer.md) | 0.0% | +2.8% |
| DAP | 2022-10-08 | [Global Fertilizer Price Updates: September’ 2022 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39446-global-fertilizer-price-updates-september-2022.md) | 0.0% | -3.8% |
| DAP | 2022-01-09 | [Global Fertilizer Price Update: December’21 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43442-global-fertilizer-price-update-december-21.md) | -1.4% | +0.3% |
| DAP | 2025-11-05 | [Global fertilizer prices expected to rise 21% in 2025 - Ecofin Agency](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6229-global-fertilizer-prices-expected-to-rise-21-in-2025-ecofin-agency.md) | +0.2% | -11.9% |
| UREA | 2026-04-07 | [Semi-Annual Global Fertilizer Outlook - Rabobank](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20027-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-rabobank.md) | 0.0% | -10.4% |
| UREA | 2020-12-10 | [Rabobank provides semi-annual global fertilizer outlook \| World Fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49586-rabobank-provides-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-world-fertilizer.md) | -0.4% | +13.4% |
| UREA | 2022-10-08 | [Global Fertilizer Price Updates: September’ 2022 -](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39446-global-fertilizer-price-updates-september-2022.md) | -1.2% | -13.9% |

## Sources

- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/news/raboresearchs-2025-global-fertilizer-outlook-prices-affordability-down

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.