# El Nino shift: Impact on crop futures and global agricultural outlook

> Farm Futures analyst Bryce Knorr says the end of La Niña and a neutral ENSO phase, expected to persist into 2026, reduce odds of extreme weather. He projects a two-in-three chance that December 2025 corn trades between $4.40 and $5, and a worst case near $3.85, with soybeans likely at $9.90 to $11.15.

- Date: 2025-04-21 · published 2025-04-21T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/25021-el-nino-shift-impact-on-crop-futures-and-global-agricultural-outlook
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

A neutral ENSO outlook lowers the probability of weather-driven supply shocks, which tends to cap rallies in corn and soybean futures and keeps feed costs range-bound.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2018-10-22 | [Managing El Niño And La Niña In Lao Agriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62469-managing-el-nino-and-la-nina-in-lao-agriculture.md) | -1.2% | -6.0% |
| CORN | 2018-10-06 | [How to prepare for an El Niño winter \| Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/62472-how-to-prepare-for-an-el-nino-winter-climate-and-agriculture-in-the-southeast.md) | -0.3% | -0.4% |
| CORN | 2026-07-31 | [Corn and soybean conditions look good on paper, but how big is the crop? - Agweek \| #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12981-corn-and-soybean-conditions-look-good-on-paper-but-how-big-is-the-crop-agweek-1.md) | -1.6% | +9.4% |
| CORN | 2026-03-23 | [Chance of 'super El Niño' shouldn't change northern Plains growing season outlook - Agweek \| #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20091-chance-of-super-el-nino-shouldn-t-change-northern-plains-growing-season-outlook.md) | -0.3% | -1.8% |
| CORN | 2025-06-06 | [Texas Agriculture • June 6, 2025 • El Niño nor La Niña likely to impact Lone Star State this summer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24120-texas-agriculture-june-6-2025-el-nino-nor-la-nina-likely-to-impact-lone-star.md) | -2.1% | -4.6% |
| SOY | 2023-06-16 | [FACTBOX: Mapping El Nino's impact on crop yields, global food trade in 2023-24](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35405-factbox-mapping-el-nino-s-impact-on-crop-yields-global-food-trade-in-2023-24.md) | +4.6% | +3.9% |
| SOY | 2018-03-06 | [Outlook for the 2018 growing season \| Climate and Agriculture in the Southeast](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65927-outlook-for-the-2018-growing-season-climate-and-agriculture-in-the-southeast.md) | -3.1% | -2.7% |
| SOY | 2026-07-31 | [Corn and soybean conditions look good on paper, but how big is the crop? - Agweek \| #1 source for agriculture news, farming, markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12981-corn-and-soybean-conditions-look-good-on-paper-but-how-big-is-the-crop-agweek-1.md) | -1.7% | +6.7% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/commentary/neutral-el-nino-phase-brings-mixed-outlook-for-crop-futures-and-global-yields

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.