# US natural gas market increasingly volatile amid falling coal, producer discipline | S&P Global

> S&P Global Energy analysts expect US natural gas price volatility to rise because coal retirements have eroded demand flexibility and upstream consolidation has limited supply response. They forecast the market to tighten in the second half of 2025 and stay in deficit through mid-2026, with Henry Hub averaging about $5/MMBtu in 2026. Haynesville drilling is expected to lag rising LNG feedgas demand until producers see higher prices.

- Date: 2025-05-23 · published 2025-05-23T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24865-us-natural-gas-market-increasingly-volatile-amid-falling-coal-producer
- Commodities: [Natural Gas](https://feedsoft.ai/c/NATGAS.md)

## Why it matters

Expected tightening and rising LNG feedgas demand point to firmer domestic gas prices, which raise nitrogen fertilizer production costs for feed grain and oilseed supply chains.

## Read by commodity

- NATGAS: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| NATGAS | 2025-10-06 | [European Union's US gas use set to soar, increasing price volatility \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/22577-european-union-s-us-gas-use-set-to-soar-increasing-price-volatility-reuters.md) | -7.8% | +17.8% |
| NATGAS | 2017-11-02 | [Natural Gas Market - Elasticities Are Changing and That Means More Volatility - IASG](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10191-natural-gas-market-elasticities-are-changing-and-that-means-more-volatility-iasg.md) | +13.8% | +12.0% |
| NATGAS | 2021-11-01 | [Q&A \| The Role of Liquefied Natural Gas in the US Gas Market - Center on Global Energy Policy at Columbia University SIPA \| CGEP](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44235-q-and-a-the-role-of-liquefied-natural-gas-in-the-us-gas-market-center-on-global.md) | +1.0% | -10.6% |
| NATGAS | 2021-09-25 | [Global Natural Gas Prices Are Soaring : NPR](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7926-global-natural-gas-prices-are-soaring-npr.md) | +9.7% | +1.4% |
| NATGAS | 2024-12-17 | [Global natural gas market outlook: European supply challenges and regional demand dynamics](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27140-global-natural-gas-market-outlook-european-supply-challenges-and-regional.md) | +7.0% | +40.3% |

## Sources

- spglobal.com: https://www.spglobal.com/energy/en/news-research/latest-news/natural-gas/052325-us-natural-gas-market-increasingly-volatile-amid-falling-coal-producer-discipline

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.