# Relatively Tight 2025-26 Soybean Ending Stocks Will Increase Weather Sensitivity, Market Volatility

> The May 12 USDA WASDE projected 2025-26 US soybean ending stocks at 295 million bushels, well below the 362 million expected by the trade. The estimate assumes a record 52.5 bushel-per-acre yield, and DTN warns that a 51 bushel yield would push carryover to levels not seen since 2013.

- Date: 2025-05-15 · published 2025-05-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24728-relatively-tight-2025-26-soybean-ending-stocks-will-increase-weather
- Commodities: [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Tight projected carryout from a bullish surprise supports soybean prices, and any yield shortfall in drought-affected Corn Belt areas would tighten supplies further. Feed costs for soymeal users could rise accordingly.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SOY | 2025-04-10 | [US Corn and Soybean Ending Stocks Decrease in 2024/2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25067-us-corn-and-soybean-ending-stocks-decrease-in-2024-2025.md) | +2.6% | +2.4% |
| SOY | 2024-11-11 | [WASDE Shows Decrease in US Corn and Soybean Ending Stocks in 2024/2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27342-wasde-shows-decrease-in-us-corn-and-soybean-ending-stocks-in-2024-2025.md) | -1.8% | -2.6% |
| SOY | 2025-01-13 | [WASDE Shows Decrease in US Corn and Soybeans Ending Stocks in 2024/2025](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26454-wasde-shows-decrease-in-us-corn-and-soybeans-ending-stocks-in-2024-2025.md) | +2.0% | +3.6% |
| SOY | 2025-05-12 | [USDA May report: Record corn crop, tight soybean stocks for 2025-26](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24608-usda-may-report-record-corn-crop-tight-soybean-stocks-for-2025-26.md) | +0.6% | +1.1% |
| SOY | 2020-10-09 | [Soybeans rally on tight new crop ending stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50665-soybeans-rally-on-tight-new-crop-ending-stocks.md) | +1.2% | +4.9% |
| SBM | 2025-05-12 | [USDA May report: Record corn crop, tight soybean stocks for 2025-26](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24608-usda-may-report-record-corn-crop-tight-soybean-stocks-for-2025-26.md) | +1.3% | +2.3% |
| SBM | 2020-10-09 | [Soybeans rally on tight new crop ending stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50665-soybeans-rally-on-tight-new-crop-ending-stocks.md) | +3.6% | +8.0% |
| SBM | 2025-02-27 | [USDA Forecasts Tighter-Than-Expected Soybean Ending Stocks](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26098-usda-forecasts-tighter-than-expected-soybean-ending-stocks.md) | -0.1% | +0.6% |

## Sources

- dtnpf.com: https://www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/news/article/2025/05/15/relatively-tight-2025-26-soybean

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.