# Australia heading towards record-high winter crop planting – Rabobank

> Rabobank's 2025/26 Australian Winter Crop Outlook forecasts a record 24.5 million hectares planted, but total production at a base case of 53.9Mt versus 59.7Mt last year. Wheat area is expected to drop, especially in Western Australia, due to fertiliser costs and weaker prospects.

- Date: 2025-05-25 · published 2025-05-25T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24631-australia-heading-towards-record-high-winter-crop-planting-rabobank
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Lower projected production and falling wheat area point to tighter Australian supply, mildly supportive for wheat prices, while higher fertiliser costs weigh on planting decisions.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲
- WHEAT: bullish ▲
- BARLEY: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-11-06 | [Australian Winter Crop Forecast by Rabobank - Poultry Newspaper](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33123-australian-winter-crop-forecast-by-rabobank-poultry-newspaper.md) | -1.9% | -0.6% |
| WHEAT | 2026-05-26 | [Australia looks to smaller winter crop, impacted by mixed weather and high input costs: Rabobank I Australian Rural & Regional News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19237-australia-looks-to-smaller-winter-crop-impacted-by-mixed-weather-and-high-input.md) | -0.7% | +0.2% |
| WHEAT | 2023-05-31 | [Winter crop inputs, area, rise: Rabobank - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35905-winter-crop-inputs-area-rise-rabobank-grain-central.md) | -3.2% | +9.0% |
| WHEAT | 2021-10-20 | [A golden outlook for a golden year’ – Rabobank 2021/22 Australian Winter Crop Forecast I Australian Rural & Regional News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44506-a-golden-outlook-for-a-golden-year-rabobank-2021-22-australian-winter-crop.md) | +0.5% | +8.9% |
| WHEAT | 2026-06-02 | [Australia’s 2026-27 winter crop seen slipping \| World Grain](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18773-australia-s-2026-27-winter-crop-seen-slipping-world-grain.md) | -0.6% | +1.3% |
| UREA | 2020-12-10 | [Rabobank provides semi-annual global fertilizer outlook \| World Fertilizer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49586-rabobank-provides-semi-annual-global-fertilizer-outlook-world-fertilizer.md) | -0.4% | +13.4% |
| UREA | 2024-09-12 | [Rabobank: Fertilizer Affordability Index Could Shift Negative Later in 2024](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28638-rabobank-fertilizer-affordability-index-could-shift-negative-later-in-2024.md) | +0.0% | +5.6% |
| UREA | 2022-05-29 | [Texas A&M Report Shows Impact of Higher Crop and Input Prices for 2022 - Cotton Grower](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41537-texas-a-and-m-report-shows-impact-of-higher-crop-and-input-prices-for-2022.md) | -8.8% | -13.2% |

## Sources

- sfs.org.au: https://sfs.org.au/article/australia-heading-towards-record-high-winter-crop-planting-rabobank

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.