# New-crop forecasts roll out as crop goes in - Grain Central

> Early estimates for Australia's 2025-26 major crops are appearing ahead of ABARES new-crop figures due June 3. Lachstock puts wheat at 33.26Mt and barley at 13.4Mt, while USDA has canola at 6.15Mt, with dry conditions in southern NSW, South Australia and Victoria driving the spread.

- Date: 2025-05-20 · published 2025-05-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Australia · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24625-new-crop-forecasts-roll-out-as-crop-goes-in-grain-central
- Commodities: [Canola Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CANMEAL.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Barley](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BARLEY.md)

## Why it matters

Dry conditions shifting area from canola to wheat and barley point to tighter canola supply and more cereal competition, a modestly bullish canola signal and bearish for barley and wheat prices.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: neutral
- BARLEY: neutral
- CANMEAL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2023-06-16 | [Strategie Grains cuts EU cereal crop forecasts on weather woes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/35421-strategie-grains-cuts-eu-cereal-crop-forecasts-on-weather-woes.md) | +3.5% | -0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2016-11-25 | [Farm income protection eases pain of crop loss - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/73905-farm-income-protection-eases-pain-of-crop-loss-grain-central.md) | -3.0% | +0.8% |
| WHEAT | 2019-01-15 | [The winter crop that was: West trumps East in 2018 - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61049-the-winter-crop-that-was-west-trumps-east-in-2018-grain-central.md) | +3.3% | +2.7% |
| WHEAT | 2024-06-27 | [Australia: June rain gets national winter crop out of trouble for now](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29708-australia-june-rain-gets-national-winter-crop-out-of-trouble-for-now.md) | -2.2% | +4.2% |
| WHEAT | 2017-03-14 | [Northern hemisphere winter crop emerges from dormancy in good shape - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71949-northern-hemisphere-winter-crop-emerges-from-dormancy-in-good-shape-grain.md) | -1.6% | +0.9% |

## Sources

- graincentral.com: https://www.graincentral.com/news/hopes-pinned-on-south-east-rain-as-new-crop-forecasts-roll-in/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.