# A Tariff-Induced Recession? | Rabobank

> Rabobank raises its probability of a US recession above 50% due to tariffs and expects inflation to exceed its earlier 4.0% peak. It sees one more Fed rate cut in June before a pause, and projects USD/MXN near 21 and USD/CAD falling to 1.46.

- Date: 2025-05-30 · published 2025-05-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24594-a-tariff-induced-recession-rabobank
- Commodities: [US Dollar (Broad)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DXY.md), [Mexican Peso (MXN per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDMXN.md), [Canadian Dollar (CAD per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDCAD.md)

## Why it matters

A weaker US economy would dampen demand for meat, dairy and feed, while a softer Canadian dollar and peso shift export competitiveness for North American feed ingredients.

## Read by commodity

- DXY: neutral
- USDCAD: neutral
- USDMXN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DXY | 2020-01-31 | [Can the Fed heavily pressure the USD? – Rabobank — Octa](https://feedsoft.ai/events/55001-can-the-fed-heavily-pressure-the-usd-rabobank-octa.md) | +0.3% | +1.6% |
| DXY | 2024-09-17 | [BNP Paribas says euro could rise, not fall, if recession hits](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28532-bnp-paribas-says-euro-could-rise-not-fall-if-recession-hits.md) | -0.1% | +1.7% |
| DXY | 2025-03-19 | [Federal Reserve cuts US growth forecast as Trump tariff fears increase](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25472-federal-reserve-cuts-us-growth-forecast-as-trump-tariff-fears-increase.md) | +0.5% | -1.4% |
| DXY | 2025-02-26 | [US dollar rises as economic, tariff outlook gauged](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26223-us-dollar-rises-as-economic-tariff-outlook-gauged.md) | +0.5% | -1.0% |
| DXY | 2024-05-15 | [Watch: Why a rate-cutting ECB won’t be too worried about the euro \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/30473-watch-why-a-rate-cutting-ecb-won-t-be-too-worried-about-the-euro-ing-think.md) | -0.4% | +1.6% |

## Sources

- rabobankna.com: https://www.rabobankna.com/knowledge-hub/a-tariff-induced-recession/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.