# Will Tight Phosphate Supply Block a Summer Price Reset?

> StoneX's Josh Linville says China's phosphate export program is around 4 million tonnes, less than half its typical 9-10 million, and India has been forced to buy at rising prices from the mid-$640s to the $750s per tonne. NOLA urea fell $70/t in one week, and potash is well supplied with modest downside expected.

- Date: 2025-05-20 · published 2025-05-20T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region China · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24593-will-tight-phosphate-supply-block-a-summer-price-reset
- Commodities: [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md)

## Why it matters

Tight Chinese phosphate exports should keep DAP and MAP prices firm into summer, while urea and potash softness may offer some relief to feed-grain input costs.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bearish ▼
- POTASH: bearish ▼

## Linked price moves

| Commodity | Date | Window | Change % | z-score | Why linked |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2025-05-22 | 1 | +1.1% | 4.0 | StoneX notes China's phosphate export program is under half its normal volume while India pays rising prices (mid-$640s to $750s), a direct supply-tightness and trade-flow driver for DAP. |
| UREA | 2025-06-02 | 5 | -21.1% | -10.0 | NOLA urea fell $70/t in one week in mid-to-late May, showing the downward price momentum that fed into the 5-day drop ending June 2. |
| DAP | 2025-05-28 | 1 | +1.0% | 3.1 | Tight Chinese phosphate export supply and India forced to buy at rising prices ($640s to $750s) signal upward DAP price pressure heading into the move. |

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| DAP | 2025-04-16 | [Will Sky-High Phosphate Prices Spell Disaster for Farmers?](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25436-will-sky-high-phosphate-prices-spell-disaster-for-farmers.md) | 0.0% | +2.3% |
| DAP | 2025-01-15 | [Supplies tighten for phosphate, urea \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26439-supplies-tighten-for-phosphate-urea-the-western-producer.md) | 0.0% | +2.0% |
| DAP | 2024-01-15 | [Urea, Phosphate Prices Rise on Tight Availability \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32051-urea-phosphate-prices-rise-on-tight-availability-cz-app.md) | +0.8% | -1.3% |
| DAP | 2021-03-11 | [Mosaic Wins Phosphate Countervailing Duty Case as Supply and Price Strains Continue - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48050-mosaic-wins-phosphate-countervailing-duty-case-as-supply-and-price-strains.md) | -0.6% | +1.1% |
| DAP | 2025-03-24 | [Urea Continues to Fall as Phosphate Prices Surge \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25505-urea-continues-to-fall-as-phosphate-prices-surge-cz-app.md) | +0.5% | +2.5% |
| UREA | 2025-03-24 | [Urea Continues to Fall as Phosphate Prices Surge \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25505-urea-continues-to-fall-as-phosphate-prices-surge-cz-app.md) | -0.6% | +6.6% |
| UREA | 2025-03-09 | [Urea Prices Decline as US Tariffs Impact Phosphate, Potash \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25925-urea-prices-decline-as-us-tariffs-impact-phosphate-potash-cz-app.md) | -0.1% | +4.0% |
| UREA | 2023-10-27 | [Indian tender pushes urea prices down; Phosphates and Potash prices unmoved.](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33539-indian-tender-pushes-urea-prices-down-phosphates-and-potash-prices-unmoved.md) | -4.8% | -8.8% |

## Sources

- stonex.com: https://www.stonex.com/en-gb/insights/05-20-2025-will-tight-phosphate-supply-block-a-summer-price-reset/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.