# US CPC sees 74% chance of ENSO Neutral conditions through June-August | Reuters

> Reuters reports the US Climate Prediction Center gives a 74% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions through June-August. The article also notes India's 2024/25 sugar estimate was cut to 28 million tons due to El Niño impacts and limited groundwater.

- Date: 2025-05-08 · published 2025-05-08T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24587-us-cpc-sees-74-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-through-june-august-reuters
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Neutral ENSO conditions suggest more stable weather for crops, which tempers supply-risk premiums, while the Indian sugar cut reflects weather-driven tightness in a related sweetener market.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2025-06-12 | [US CPC sees 82% chance of ENSO neutral conditions through June-August — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24118-us-cpc-sees-82-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-through-june-august.md) | +0.0% | -4.5% |
| CORN | 2019-05-09 | [ENSO WILL TOE THE LINE BETWEEN EL NIÑO AND NEUTRAL CONDITIONS DURING JUNE-AUGUST](https://feedsoft.ai/events/59009-enso-will-toe-the-line-between-el-nino-and-neutral-conditions-during-june-august.md) | +2.3% | +9.3% |
| CORN | 2026-02-12 | [US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20517-us-forecaster-sees-signs-of-la-nina-shift-towards-el-nino-conditions-in-early.md) | -0.0% | +3.5% |
| CORN | 2025-04-01 | [March 2025 ENSO update: neutral conditions expected soon](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25496-march-2025-enso-update-neutral-conditions-expected-soon.md) | +1.0% | +2.2% |
| CORN | 2024-11-14 | [US forecaster sees 57% chance of La Nina developing between now and December \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27326-us-forecaster-sees-57-chance-of-la-nina-developing-between-now-and-december.md) | +0.2% | +0.4% |
| SOY | 2025-06-12 | [US CPC sees 82% chance of ENSO neutral conditions through June-August — TradingView News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24118-us-cpc-sees-82-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-through-june-august.md) | +2.3% | -4.4% |
| SOY | 2026-02-12 | [US forecaster sees signs of La Nina shift towards El Nino conditions in early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20517-us-forecaster-sees-signs-of-la-nina-shift-towards-el-nino-conditions-in-early.md) | +1.5% | +7.9% |
| SOY | 2025-04-01 | [March 2025 ENSO update: neutral conditions expected soon](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25496-march-2025-enso-update-neutral-conditions-expected-soon.md) | -3.1% | +2.6% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/climate-energy/us-cpc-sees-74-chance-enso-neutral-conditions-through-june-august-2025-05-08/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.