# Fitch Ratings Revises Near-Term Fertiliser Price Assumptions

> Fitch Ratings cut its 2025 ammonia price assumption on higher supply, including new Gulf Coast capacity and resumed Russian exports via Taman and Ust-Luga. It raised 2025-2026 assumptions for urea, phosphate rock, DAP and potash on tighter supply, geopolitical risks and Chinese export restrictions.

- Date: 2025-06-26 · published 2025-06-26T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24534-fitch-ratings-revises-near-term-fertiliser-price-assumptions
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Potash (KCl)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/POTASH.md), [Phosphate Rock](https://feedsoft.ai/c/PHOSROCK.md)

## Why it matters

Upgraded fertilizer price assumptions from a major rating agency signal expectations of firmer urea, DAP and potash costs near term. This supports higher input costs for feed-grain production.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲
- POTASH: bullish ▲
- PHOSROCK: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2025-03-18 | [Fitch hikes DAP and urea price assumptions, leaves ammonia unchanged](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25905-fitch-hikes-dap-and-urea-price-assumptions-leaves-ammonia-unchanged.md) | -0.5% | +5.0% |
| UREA | 2022-09-18 | [FitchRatings: Moroccan Fertilizer Prices to Increase Amid Supply Constraints](https://feedsoft.ai/events/39898-fitchratings-moroccan-fertilizer-prices-to-increase-amid-supply-constraints.md) | -2.6% | -7.8% |
| UREA | 2020-12-23 | [Fertilizer prices to rise moderately in 2021](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49583-fertilizer-prices-to-rise-moderately-in-2021.md) | +3.0% | +21.5% |
| UREA | 2026-05-14 | [Fertilizer prices surge as Strait of Hormuz disruptions tighten supplies](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19175-fertilizer-prices-surge-as-strait-of-hormuz-disruptions-tighten-supplies.md) | -1.4% | -29.2% |
| UREA | 2022-07-05 | [Impacts and Repercussions of Price Increases on the Global Fertilizer Market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40415-impacts-and-repercussions-of-price-increases-on-the-global-fertilizer-market.md) | -0.0% | +12.8% |
| DAP | 2025-03-18 | [Fitch hikes DAP and urea price assumptions, leaves ammonia unchanged](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25905-fitch-hikes-dap-and-urea-price-assumptions-leaves-ammonia-unchanged.md) | 0.0% | +1.7% |
| DAP | 2020-12-23 | [Fertilizer prices to rise moderately in 2021](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49583-fertilizer-prices-to-rise-moderately-in-2021.md) | +2.8% | +6.8% |
| DAP | 2022-07-05 | [Impacts and Repercussions of Price Increases on the Global Fertilizer Market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/40415-impacts-and-repercussions-of-price-increases-on-the-global-fertilizer-market.md) | +4.0% | -0.7% |

## Sources

- fitchratings.com: http://www.fitchratings.com/research/corporate-finance/fitch-ratings-revises-near-term-fertiliser-price-assumptions-26-06-2025

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.