# USD/JPY H2 2025 Forecast: Correlation Breakdown, Political Risks and Central Bank Wildcards | Investing.com

> An investing.com outlook for USD/JPY in H2 2025 says correlations between the pair and key macro drivers have weakened. It cites tariff policy, political risks and US fiscal concerns as weighing on the dollar. It favors three Fed cuts in 2025 and sees 138.00 as a key downside level.

- Date: 2025-06-30 · published 2025-06-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24473-usd-jpy-h2-2025-forecast-correlation-breakdown-political-risks-and-central-bank
- Commodities: [Japanese Yen (JPY per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDJPY.md)

## Why it matters

Weakening correlations and political drivers make currency moves less predictable for importers pricing in yen. A weaker dollar would support dollar-priced feed commodities if the forecast plays out.

## Read by commodity

- USDJPY: bearish ▼

## Sources

- investing.com: https://www.investing.com/analysis/usdjpy-h2-2025-forecast-correlation-breakdown-political-risks-and-central-bank-wildcards-200662941

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.