# Brazilian economists expect central bank to cut rates in early 2026 despite hawkish signals

> Brazilian private economists surveyed by the central bank still expect the Selic rate to be held at 15% through December 2025, with a first cut to 14.75% in January 2026. The central bank raised rates by 25 basis points earlier in June and signaled a pause at its late July meeting.

- Date: 2025-06-30 · published 2025-06-30T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24422-brazilian-economists-expect-central-bank-to-cut-rates-in-early-2026-despite
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

Higher-for-longer interest rates raise financing costs for Brazilian feed mills, poultry and pork integrators, and farm credit, which can slow herd and flock expansion.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2025-03-27 | [Brazil's central bank signals need for higher rates for longer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25807-brazil-s-central-bank-signals-need-for-higher-rates-for-longer.md) | -0.7% | -0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2021-12-08 | [Brazil central bank makes 150 bps interest rate hike, signals another](https://feedsoft.ai/events/43827-brazil-central-bank-makes-150-bps-interest-rate-hike-signals-another.md) | +0.7% | +1.3% |
| USDBRL | 2021-03-12 | [FX Daily: Brazilian central bank’s line in the sand \| ING THINK](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48310-fx-daily-brazilian-central-bank-s-line-in-the-sand-ing-think.md) | -0.3% | +0.4% |
| USDBRL | 2023-09-26 | [Brazil inflation accelerates as cenbank reiterates rate cut pace](https://feedsoft.ai/events/34321-brazil-inflation-accelerates-as-cenbank-reiterates-rate-cut-pace.md) | +2.3% | +0.7% |
| USDBRL | 2018-06-08 | [Brazil Central Bank unveils $20 billion to curb dollar \| Agência Brasil](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5380-brazil-central-bank-unveils-20-billion-to-curb-dollar-agencia-brasil.md) | -5.8% | -0.6% |

## Sources

- marketscreener.com: https://www.marketscreener.com/quote/currency/EURO-BRAZILIAN-REAL-EUR-B-2358324/news/Brazilian-economists-expect-central-bank-to-cut-rates-in-early-2026-despite-hawkish-signals-50373193/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.