# Iran oil doomsday in Hormuz may be more fear than reality | Reuters

> An analysis argues that a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is unlikely because it would hurt Iran's own exports, and that any supply shock from such a disruption would not last. The piece follows US strikes on Iran and the resulting jump in tensions.

- Date: 2025-06-22 · published 2025-06-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Middle East · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24395-iran-oil-doomsday-in-hormuz-may-be-more-fear-than-reality-reuters
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [ULSD / Diesel](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DIESEL.md)

## Why it matters

Geopolitical risk premiums in crude can spike on Middle East escalation, which lifts diesel and fertilizer input costs, but the analysis suggests such spikes tend to fade.

## Read by commodity

- BRENT: bullish ▲
- DIESEL: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2026-08-30 | [Oil settles up by more than 2.5% as US and Iran resume military attacks \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18065-oil-settles-up-by-more-than-2-5-as-us-and-iran-resume-military-attacks-reuters.md) | +10.8% | +22.9% |
| BRENT | 2026-02-28 | [Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20769-iran-war-throws-oil-market-into-biggest-crisis-in-decades-reuters.md) | +31.0% | +62.6% |
| BRENT | 2026-08-31 | [Oil prices settle up more than $4 a barrel on renewed US-Iran fighting \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17635-oil-prices-settle-up-more-than-4-a-barrel-on-renewed-us-iran-fighting-reuters.md) | +10.8% | +22.9% |
| BRENT | 2025-06-17 | [Oil prices rise more than 4% as Iran-Israel conflict escalates \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10994-oil-prices-rise-more-than-4-as-iran-israel-conflict-escalates-reuters.md) | -1.7% | -5.5% |
| BRENT | 2026-01-13 | [Oil prices rise by more than $1 a barrel on potential Iran supply disruption \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11389-oil-prices-rise-by-more-than-1-a-barrel-on-potential-iran-supply-disruption.md) | +1.4% | +8.5% |
| DIESEL | 2026-02-28 | [Iran war throws oil market into biggest crisis in decades \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20769-iran-war-throws-oil-market-into-biggest-crisis-in-decades-reuters.md) | +36.4% | +69.9% |
| DIESEL | 2026-03-04 | [Oil settles at highest in over a year for second straight day as Iran crisis escalates, snarls Hormuz flows \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8004-oil-settles-at-highest-in-over-a-year-for-second-straight-day-as-iran-crisis.md) | +6.1% | +30.8% |
| DIESEL | 2026-03-12 | [Oil settles up 9% as Iran vows to keep Strait of Hormuz closed \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6638-oil-settles-up-9-as-iran-vows-to-keep-strait-of-hormuz-closed-reuters.md) | +15.3% | +5.9% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/iran-oil-doomsday-hormuz-may-be-more-fear-than-reality-bousso-2025-06-22/

---
Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.