# Canola Outlook: War, Biofuel & Weather Drive Uncertainty

> Canola futures rallied modestly in mid-June, with new-crop December soyoil up about 8% and November canola up 2.7% from June 13 to 20. Prices are supported by drought in Canada and expectations that old-crop carry-in will be smaller than normal. Israel-Iran war lifted oil prices and US biofuel policy remains the dominant oilseed driver.

- Date: 2025-06-24 · published 2025-06-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Canada · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24333-canola-outlook-war-biofuel-and-weather-drive-uncertainty
- Commodities: [Soybean Oil](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBO.md)

## Why it matters

Smaller carry-in stocks and drought support vegetable oil prices, while US biofuel subsidies add demand for soy and canola oil. Higher crude also supports vegetable oil values.

## Read by commodity

- SBO: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| SBO | 2019-01-18 | [Lower dollar boosts canola \| The Western Producer](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61188-lower-dollar-boosts-canola-the-western-producer.md) | +4.4% | +4.1% |
| SBO | 2023-02-07 | [Supply uncertainty ignites CME meal - Grain Central](https://feedsoft.ai/events/12879-supply-uncertainty-ignites-cme-meal-grain-central.md) | +1.6% | +1.8% |
| SBO | 2025-04-11 | [Tariffs and weather impact global canola markets \| Stock Journal \| SA](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11671-tariffs-and-weather-impact-global-canola-markets-stock-journal-sa.md) | +2.3% | +4.3% |
| SBO | 2023-08-15 | [Soybeans down despite dry weather concerns - Brownfield Ag News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5617-soybeans-down-despite-dry-weather-concerns-brownfield-ag-news.md) | -0.2% | -8.8% |
| SBO | 2017-07-21 | [Palm oil demand up as dry U.S. weather seen hurting rival soy crops](https://feedsoft.ai/events/70055-palm-oil-demand-up-as-dry-u-s-weather-seen-hurting-rival-soy-crops.md) | -0.4% | -2.2% |

## Sources

- producer.com: https://www.producer.com/markets/mideast-war-u-s-biofuel-policy-and-weather-stack-more-uncertainty-on-an-already-stressful-year/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.