# Urea Sector - Strong short, long-term urea price outlook - Vietcap

> Vietcap raised its 2025 Middle East urea price forecast to USD395/tonne and its 2026-29 average to USD380/tonne. It also raised its fertilizer ASP forecasts, citing higher-than-expected H1 2025 prices. The bank pointed to tight Iranian, Egyptian and EU supply, strong Indian demand and rising EU tariffs on Russian and Belarusian fertilizer.

- Date: 2025-07-10 · published 2025-07-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: policy · region Middle East · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24078-urea-sector-strong-short-long-term-urea-price-outlook-vietcap
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md)

## Why it matters

Higher forecast Middle East urea prices signal firmer nitrogen costs for feed grain production and for feed buyers exposed to fertilizer-linked grain prices. The EU tariff escalation adds a structural premium to import-dependent European supply.

## Read by commodity

- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2023-11-17 | [Urea Sector Update - Marginally higher urea price outlook in 2024 - Vietcap](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33475-urea-sector-update-marginally-higher-urea-price-outlook-in-2024-vietcap.md) | +0.7% | -8.2% |
| UREA | 2024-11-11 | [China’s record low urea exports support nitrogen fertilizers outlook: Fertiglobe](https://feedsoft.ai/events/27319-china-s-record-low-urea-exports-support-nitrogen-fertilizers-outlook-fertiglobe.md) | +0.5% | +1.3% |
| UREA | 2023-12-22 | [Fertilizer Outlook: Global dynamics to influence 2024 fertilizer prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/32630-fertilizer-outlook-global-dynamics-to-influence-2024-fertilizer-prices.md) | +1.7% | +2.7% |
| UREA | 2025-04-07 | [New Tariffs Drive Urea Price Surge as Phosphate, Potash Strengthen \| CZ app](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25025-new-tariffs-drive-urea-price-surge-as-phosphate-potash-strengthen-cz-app.md) | +0.8% | +19.5% |
| UREA | 2024-03-25 | [US senator presses CF on soaring nitrogen prices \| Latest Market News](https://feedsoft.ai/events/31523-us-senator-presses-cf-on-soaring-nitrogen-prices-latest-market-news.md) | -12.7% | -19.2% |

## Sources

- vietcap.com.vn: https://www.vietcap.com.vn/en/research-center/urea-sector-strong-short-long-term-urea-price-outlook

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.