# Closure of Strait of Hormuz: A Looming Threat to Already High Fertilizer Costs - AgWeb

> Rabobank research models the effect of a closure of the Strait of Hormuz on global fertilizer markets, noting that the strait carries a large share of world urea and phosphate trade. The analysis comes as fertilizer-to-corn price ratios are already at historically unfavorable levels following Israel's strike on Iran in June.

- Date: 2025-07-08 · published 2025-07-08T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: geopolitics · region Global · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/24073-closure-of-strait-of-hormuz-a-looming-threat-to-already-high-fertilizer-costs
- Commodities: [Urea](https://feedsoft.ai/c/UREA.md), [DAP](https://feedsoft.ai/c/DAP.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

A closure would cut seaborne urea and phosphate supply from the Gulf, sharply lifting nitrogen and phosphate prices and worsening feed-grain margins for farmers. The risk is a scenario rather than an actual disruption, so the effect is currently a price-risk premium.

## Read by commodity

- DAP: bullish ▲
- WTI: bullish ▲
- UREA: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| UREA | 2026-07-14 | [The Strait of Hormuz Is Technically Still Open. So Why Are Fertilizer Prices Climbing? - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18673-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-technically-still-open-so-why-are-fertilizer-prices.md) | +1.6% | +4.2% |
| UREA | 2026-05-01 | [Strait of Hormuz Closure Nears 10-Week Mark, Keeping Fertilizer Markets Tight Worldwide - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10736-strait-of-hormuz-closure-nears-10-week-mark-keeping-fertilizer-markets-tight.md) | -11.0% | -18.0% |
| UREA | 2026-10-25 | [Fertilizer’s Next Big Problem? It Goes Beyond the Strait of Hormuz](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17354-fertilizer-s-next-big-problem-it-goes-beyond-the-strait-of-hormuz.md) | -0.1% | — |
| UREA | 2026-04-27 | [Mideast Urea Output Drops as Fertilizer Shipments Stall in Strait of Hormuz - Bloomberg](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10730-mideast-urea-output-drops-as-fertilizer-shipments-stall-in-strait-of-hormuz.md) | -8.8% | -16.4% |
| UREA | 2026-04-30 | [Fertilizer Use Already Falling as War Drives Up Costs, Yara Says](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10734-fertilizer-use-already-falling-as-war-drives-up-costs-yara-says.md) | -10.0% | -17.6% |
| DAP | 2026-09-18 | [How are fertilizer markets coping with the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz? \| CGIAR System](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17410-how-are-fertilizer-markets-coping-with-the-continued-closure-of-the-strait-of.md) | +0.3% | +0.3% |
| DAP | 2026-07-14 | [The Strait of Hormuz Is Technically Still Open. So Why Are Fertilizer Prices Climbing? - AgWeb](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18673-the-strait-of-hormuz-is-technically-still-open-so-why-are-fertilizer-prices.md) | +1.4% | +3.5% |
| DAP | 2026-05-01 | [Strait of Hormuz Closure Nears 10-Week Mark, Keeping Fertilizer Markets Tight Worldwide - RFD](https://feedsoft.ai/events/10736-strait-of-hormuz-closure-nears-10-week-mark-keeping-fertilizer-markets-tight.md) | +4.8% | +8.7% |

## Sources

- agweb.com: https://www.agweb.com/news/closure-strait-hormuz-looming-threat-already-high-fertilizer-costs

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.