# Oil Caught Between a $70 Summer and Growing Surplus Fears | Financial Post

> Oil prices are holding near $70 a barrel despite warnings of a weaker market later in 2025 and into 2026. Forecasters including the IEA and EIA have raised their estimates of next year's surplus, while inventories at key hubs remain low.

- Date: 2025-07-27 · published 2025-07-27T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23926-oil-caught-between-a-70-summer-and-growing-surplus-fears-financial-post
- Commodities: [Crude Oil (Brent)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/BRENT.md), [Crude Oil (WTI)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WTI.md)

## Why it matters

Expected surplus in 2026 points to lower crude prices ahead, which would ease diesel and energy costs for feed mills. Near-term tight inventories currently limit downside.

## Read by commodity

- WTI: neutral
- BRENT: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| BRENT | 2020-09-30 | [Europe's Oil Refineries Struggling to Cope With Diesel Glut \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51273-europe-s-oil-refineries-struggling-to-cope-with-diesel-glut-financial-post.md) | +3.1% | -0.6% |
| BRENT | 2022-12-08 | [Rupee inches up as U.S. yields drop, weak Asian cues cap gains \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/38493-rupee-inches-up-as-u-s-yields-drop-weak-asian-cues-cap-gains-financial-post.md) | +7.6% | +0.4% |
| BRENT | 2017-04-10 | [OPEC's original cut 'just missed paving the road to hell', but extension needed for oil to hit $60: Citi \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71675-opec-s-original-cut-just-missed-paving-the-road-to-hell-but-extension-needed.md) | +0.6% | -12.4% |
| BRENT | 2017-03-15 | [Will A Fed Rate Hike Boost The Price Of Oil? \| Investing.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71924-will-a-fed-rate-hike-boost-the-price-of-oil-investing-com.md) | +0.6% | +10.4% |
| BRENT | 2025-07-07 | [Oil prices up; strong demand outweighs surprisingly big OPEC+ output hike \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/23929-oil-prices-up-strong-demand-outweighs-surprisingly-big-opec-output-hike-reuters.md) | +2.2% | +0.7% |
| WTI | 2025-01-29 | [Argentina's Energy Export Surge Quells Fears Over Currency Management \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/26800-argentina-s-energy-export-surge-quells-fears-over-currency-management-financial.md) | -1.5% | -7.1% |
| WTI | 2019-07-31 | [Posthaste: Some oilsands mines breakeven at $10, S&P cuts Canadian GDP forecast and why the Fed is cutting rates - Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58340-posthaste-some-oilsands-mines-breakeven-at-10-s-and-p-cuts-canadian-gdp.md) | -7.6% | -5.3% |
| WTI | 2026-07-29 | [ING Says Dollar to Take Cue from Oil Prices If Fed Holds Rate \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18262-ing-says-dollar-to-take-cue-from-oil-prices-if-fed-holds-rate-financial-post.md) | -4.4% | +3.8% |

## Sources

- financialpost.com: https://financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/oil-prices-caught-between-a-70-summer-and-growing-surplus-fears

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.