# Sharp drop in hog prices this fall?

> Pork retail prices averaged $4.922 per pound in June, the highest since March, and national direct hog prices averaged $76.34/cwt. Professor Ron Plain expects a fairly sharp decline in late summer hog prices as the farm-to-retail spread normalizes.

- Date: 2025-07-28 · published 2025-07-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23907-sharp-drop-in-hog-prices-this-fall
- Commodities: [Lean Hogs](https://feedsoft.ai/c/HOGS.md)

## Why it matters

A narrow farm-to-retail spread and slaughter running below year-ago levels suggest packers must pressure farm prices lower later in summer, making hog prices bearish into fall.

## Read by commodity

- HOGS: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| HOGS | 2018-06-11 | [Lower hog prices ahead](https://feedsoft.ai/events/64673-lower-hog-prices-ahead.md) | +4.5% | +4.1% |
| HOGS | 2022-06-23 | [Hog, live cattle futures fall on recession fears - CME
						 \| The Beef Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41079-hog-live-cattle-futures-fall-on-recession-fears-cme-the-beef-site.md) | -1.1% | +4.5% |
| HOGS | 2020-04-21 | [COVID-19 infects nearly all commodity prices \| Capital Press](https://feedsoft.ai/events/6503-covid-19-infects-nearly-all-commodity-prices-capital-press.md) | +22.7% | +39.4% |
| HOGS | 2020-04-07 | [Coronavirus Sends Crop and Livestock Prices into a Tailspin \| Farm Bureau Intel Markets \| American Farm Bureau Federation](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5743-coronavirus-sends-crop-and-livestock-prices-into-a-tailspin-farm-bureau-intel.md) | -1.8% | +35.8% |
| HOGS | 2024-06-03 | [U.S. livestock: Lean hog futures fall after Mexican election - AgCanada](https://feedsoft.ai/events/29919-u-s-livestock-lean-hog-futures-fall-after-mexican-election-agcanada.md) | -1.0% | -3.4% |

## Sources

- nationalhogfarmer.com: https://www.nationalhogfarmer.com/market-news/sharp-drop-in-hog-prices-this-fall-

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.