# Brazil’s livestock sector could lose $1.3bn in U.S. sales this semester

> ABRAFRIGO estimates Brazil could lose up to $1.3 billion in beef and livestock-related exports to the US in the second half of 2025 if a 50% US import surcharge takes effect in August. Annual losses could reach at least $3 billion from 2026. Beef tallow, for which the US takes nearly all of Brazil's exports, is of particular concern.

- Date: 2025-07-17 · published 2025-07-17T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: trade · region Brazil · magnitude high
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23887-brazil-s-livestock-sector-could-lose-1-3bn-in-u-s-sales-this-semester
- Commodities: [Live Cattle](https://feedsoft.ai/c/LCATTLE.md), [Meat & Bone Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MBM.md)

## Why it matters

A 50% US tariff would shut Brazilian beef and tallow out of a major market, redirecting supply to other destinations and pressuring global beef and tallow prices. US beef supply constraints could partly offset the effect in domestic prices.

## Read by commodity

- MBM: bearish ▼
- LCATTLE: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| LCATTLE | 2020-09-11 | [Pete's Comments: Global protein \| Western Livestock Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51070-pete-s-comments-global-protein-western-livestock-journal.md) | -0.1% | +4.1% |
| LCATTLE | 2018-07-18 | [U.S. livestock: CME cattle rise but hog futures weaken - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/5215-u-s-livestock-cme-cattle-rise-but-hog-futures-weaken-grainews.md) | +1.7% | +0.9% |
| LCATTLE | 2019-06-04 | [U.S. livestock: Warming weather, easing feed costs spur rallies - Manitoba Co-operator](https://feedsoft.ai/events/58726-u-s-livestock-warming-weather-easing-feed-costs-spur-rallies-manitoba-co.md) | +0.5% | -3.7% |
| LCATTLE | 2018-03-09 | [RCALF USA calls for tariff on livestock imports \| TheFencePost.com](https://feedsoft.ai/events/65945-rcalf-usa-calls-for-tariff-on-livestock-imports-thefencepost-com.md) | +0.0% | -6.2% |
| LCATTLE | 2020-11-05 | [U.S. livestock: Cattle futures up on firm cash, export hopes - Grainews](https://feedsoft.ai/events/7937-u-s-livestock-cattle-futures-up-on-firm-cash-export-hopes-grainews.md) | +3.1% | +3.7% |

## Sources

- valorinternational.globo.com: https://valorinternational.globo.com/agribusiness/news/2025/07/17/brazils-livestock-sector-could-lose-13bn-in-us-sales-this-semester.ghtml

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.