# Weather Shocks vs. Oversupply: Are You Trading SRW Wheat's Next Big Move?

> Barchart analysis says USDA projects US wheat ending stocks for 2025/26 at their highest since 2019/20, up 10%, while US wheat exports are projected down 20 million bushels. The US winter wheat harvest was 63% complete and spring wheat conditions improved to 54% good to excellent.

- Date: 2025-07-28 · published 2025-07-28T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23799-weather-shocks-vs-oversupply-are-you-trading-srw-wheat-s-next-big-move
- Commodities: [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md), [Wheat (HRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/KWHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Higher US ending stocks and cheap SRW wheat pressure prices, though improved spring wheat conditions reinforce the ample supply outlook.

## Read by commodity

- WHEAT: bearish ▼
- KWHEAT: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| WHEAT | 2017-07-13 | [A Shock to the Wheat Market - Northern Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69888-a-shock-to-the-wheat-market-northern-ag-network.md) | -1.8% | -1.6% |
| WHEAT | 2021-01-21 | [Favorable Weather and Strong Income Support Winter Wheat Seeding](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49196-favorable-weather-and-strong-income-support-winter-wheat-seeding.md) | +4.0% | +2.4% |
| WHEAT | 2025-03-11 | [USDA Increases U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks More Than Expected](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25511-usda-increases-u-s-wheat-ending-stocks-more-than-expected.md) | +5.7% | +1.9% |
| WHEAT | 2017-04-20 | [Importer Ending Stocks Shrink to 6-Year Low - U.S. Wheat Associates](https://feedsoft.ai/events/71554-importer-ending-stocks-shrink-to-6-year-low-u-s-wheat-associates.md) | +1.3% | +0.1% |
| WHEAT | 2017-09-21 | [Russian wheat output shocks markets](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69003-russian-wheat-output-shocks-markets.md) | -6.6% | +3.1% |
| KWHEAT | 2017-07-13 | [A Shock to the Wheat Market - Northern Ag Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/69888-a-shock-to-the-wheat-market-northern-ag-network.md) | -5.3% | -12.2% |
| KWHEAT | 2021-01-21 | [Favorable Weather and Strong Income Support Winter Wheat Seeding](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49196-favorable-weather-and-strong-income-support-winter-wheat-seeding.md) | -0.0% | -0.0% |
| KWHEAT | 2018-01-18 | [More bad news for the wheat market](https://feedsoft.ai/events/67024-more-bad-news-for-the-wheat-market.md) | +1.4% | +10.0% |

## Sources

- barchart.com: https://www.barchart.com/story/news/33686129/weather-shocks-vs-oversupply-are-you-trading-srw-wheat-s-next-big-move

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.