# The Corn Market Works to Explain Itself - farmdoc daily

> Farmdoc analysis says USDA projects relatively low 2025/26 ending stocks, yet new-crop December corn has traded between about $4.10 and $4.30 per bushel since early July. The author attributes the gap to market expectations for unrealized yield figures that differ from USDA estimates. The first official NASS yield estimate is due in August.

- Date: 2025-07-24 · published 2025-07-24T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23788-the-corn-market-works-to-explain-itself-farmdoc-daily
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md)

## Why it matters

The disconnect between tight projected balance sheets and historically low prices means the August NASS yield report could trigger sizable corn price volatility.

## Read by commodity

- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-03-19 | [The Curious Case of US Corn Yields in 2023 - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13198-the-curious-case-of-us-corn-yields-in-2023-farmdoc-daily.md) | -1.1% | -6.2% |
| CORN | 2022-12-14 | [Corn and Soybean Yields in 2022 - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13311-corn-and-soybean-yields-in-2022-farmdoc-daily.md) | +0.8% | +2.1% |
| CORN | 2017-03-30 | [What to expect from the next USDA Prospective Plantings Report? - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72024-what-to-expect-from-the-next-usda-prospective-plantings-report-farmdoc-daily.md) | +0.9% | +0.8% |
| CORN | 2025-03-05 | [2024 Ethanol Production Profits: Regression to the Mean? - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25562-2024-ethanol-production-profits-regression-to-the-mean-farmdoc-daily.md) | +3.5% | +6.0% |
| CORN | 2019-08-19 | [Questions about Corn Crop Continue - farmdoc daily](https://feedsoft.ai/events/57435-questions-about-corn-crop-continue-farmdoc-daily.md) | -1.9% | -3.6% |

## Sources

- farmdocdaily.illinois.edu: https://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2025/07/the-corn-market-works-to-explain-itself.html

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.