# Milk Output Surges Past Expectations as Butter Prices Slide, 2025 Futures Rally on Export Strength - Dairy Herd

> USDA's June Milk Production report showed US milk output up 3.3% year-on-year, above expectations and the biggest annual gain since 2021. California returned to growth, and May was revised up to 2.3%. Spot butter fell while 2025 butter futures rallied on strong export demand.

- Date: 2025-07-22 · published 2025-07-22T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23759-milk-output-surges-past-expectations-as-butter-prices-slide-2025-futures-rally
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Output growth well above forecasts adds supply to a market already ample, which pressures milk prices and dairy values.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2021-06-25 | [As Higher Milk Production Forecasts Settle In, Can Export Demand Help Save Prices? - Dairy Herd](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46748-as-higher-milk-production-forecasts-settle-in-can-export-demand-help-save.md) | -2.6% | -3.6% |
| MILK | 2021-02-10 | [Weekly Digest: 2021 milk production forecast jumps, pushing price expectations lower - Progressive Dairy \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/48801-weekly-digest-2021-milk-production-forecast-jumps-pushing-price-expectations.md) | +1.0% | +5.2% |
| MILK | 2020-09-11 | [USDA: Milk output forecast raised; smaller harvest boosts feed price projections - Progressive Dairy \| Ag Proud](https://feedsoft.ai/events/51235-usda-milk-output-forecast-raised-smaller-harvest-boosts-feed-price-projections.md) | -1.6% | +24.9% |
| MILK | 2025-11-26 | [US Milk Output Surges 4% As Herd Hits 31-Year High - EDairy News English](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21960-us-milk-output-surges-4-as-herd-hits-31-year-high-edairy-news-english.md) | -8.1% | -8.3% |
| MILK | 2026-07-10 | [USDA raises milk output forecast but cuts milk price outlook
						 \| The Dairy Site](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18340-usda-raises-milk-output-forecast-but-cuts-milk-price-outlook-the-dairy-site.md) | +0.4% | +6.4% |

## Sources

- dairyherd.com: https://www.dairyherd.com/markets/milk-prices/milk-output-surges-past-expectations-butter-prices-slide-2025-futures-rally-e

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.