# Climate Prediction Center sees 56% chance of ENSO neutral conditions in August-October

> The U.S. Climate Prediction Center sees a 56% chance of ENSO-neutral conditions in August-October 2025, meaning neither El Niño nor La Niña is likely. The outlook suggests stable weather for planting and yield expectations for U.S. and South American corn and soybeans, but slightly weaker expectations for Australian wheat.

- Date: 2025-07-10 · published 2025-07-10T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region Global · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23660-climate-prediction-center-sees-56-chance-of-enso-neutral-conditions-in-august
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Wheat (SRW)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/WHEAT.md)

## Why it matters

Neutral ENSO conditions favour stable yields in the US and South America, which tends to weigh on corn and soybean prices, while lower Australian wheat yield expectations offer modest support for wheat.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: bearish ▼
- CORN: bearish ▼
- WHEAT: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2024-08-01 | [SA Weather Service predicts wetter-than-usual conditions over summer rainfall region from October](https://feedsoft.ai/events/28677-sa-weather-service-predicts-wetter-than-usual-conditions-over-summer-rainfall.md) | -0.1% | -3.8% |
| CORN | 2021-05-26 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: Neutral Conditions are Here](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46986-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | +8.1% | +6.4% |
| CORN | 2026-01-08 | [US CPC sees 75% chance of La Nina transition by early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20952-us-cpc-sees-75-chance-of-la-nina-transition-by-early-2026-reuters.md) | -3.4% | -2.0% |
| CORN | 2026-06-27 | [Growing conditions pressure crop prices in Ontario, U.S. Midwest](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11705-growing-conditions-pressure-crop-prices-in-ontario-u-s-midwest.md) | +1.0% | +2.7% |
| CORN | 2024-04-05 | [Drought Conditions Improving in Much of Midwest \| Red River Farm Network](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13192-drought-conditions-improving-in-much-of-midwest-red-river-farm-network.md) | -2.2% | -0.4% |
| SOY | 2021-05-26 | [IRI – International Research Institute for Climate and Society \| May Climate Briefing: Neutral Conditions are Here](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46986-iri-international-research-institute-for-climate-and-society-may-climate.md) | +3.4% | -8.4% |
| SOY | 2026-01-08 | [US CPC sees 75% chance of La Nina transition by early 2026 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/20952-us-cpc-sees-75-chance-of-la-nina-transition-by-early-2026-reuters.md) | -2.1% | +5.7% |
| SOY | 2018-07-12 | [Climate bulletin predicts greater disease pressure in the second half of the year - Revista Cultivar](https://feedsoft.ai/events/63883-climate-bulletin-predicts-greater-disease-pressure-in-the-second-half-of-the.md) | +1.5% | +7.7% |

## Sources

- reuters.com: https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/climate-prediction-center-sees-56-chance-enso-neutral-conditions-august-october-2025-07-10/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.