# 2025 farm profit forecast: Negative, despite bigger government payments

> University of Illinois economists project negative 2025 returns for Illinois corn at minus $60 per acre and soybeans at $15 per acre. Higher reference-price payments under the One Big Beautiful Bill Act improved returns by $32 and $51 per acre respectively.

- Date: 2025-08-15 · published 2025-08-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23305-2025-farm-profit-forecast-negative-despite-bigger-government-payments
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md)

## Why it matters

Persistently weak farm margins may slow acreage or input purchasing, but the payments are a cushion rather than a price driver for feed buyers.

## Read by commodity

- SOY: neutral
- CORN: neutral

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2021-11-17 | [USD/BRL chops either side of 5.50 level as government forecast tweaks stink of staglation: Analytics and Market news from 17 листопада 2021 18:04](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44254-usd-brl-chops-either-side-of-5-50-level-as-government-forecast-tweaks-stink-of.md) | +1.0% | +3.9% |
| CORN | 2024-12-19 | [Market Perspectives - December 19, 2024 - U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11563-market-perspectives-december-19-2024-u-s-grains-and-bioproducts-council.md) | +2.0% | +7.4% |
| CORN | 2023-04-18 | [2023 U.S. pork profitability banks upon many factors](https://feedsoft.ai/events/36550-2023-u-s-pork-profitability-banks-upon-many-factors.md) | -0.4% | -7.3% |
| CORN | 2020-11-20 | [Decoding the price fluctuations of 2020 feed byproducts - High Plains Journal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/50261-decoding-the-price-fluctuations-of-2020-feed-byproducts-high-plains-journal.md) | +0.1% | +1.2% |
| CORN | 2017-02-22 | [Mexico to offer up to USD$20 billion in forex hedges to aid battered peso \| El Universal](https://feedsoft.ai/events/72717-mexico-to-offer-up-to-usd-20-billion-in-forex-hedges-to-aid-battered-peso-el.md) | -0.1% | -1.6% |
| SOY | 2021-11-17 | [USD/BRL chops either side of 5.50 level as government forecast tweaks stink of staglation: Analytics and Market news from 17 листопада 2021 18:04](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44254-usd-brl-chops-either-side-of-5-50-level-as-government-forecast-tweaks-stink-of.md) | +1.7% | +0.9% |
| SOY | 2026-07-02 | [Margins hold tight despite falling prices](https://feedsoft.ai/events/8576-margins-hold-tight-despite-falling-prices.md) | +4.8% | +4.5% |
| SOY | 2024-12-19 | [Market Perspectives - December 19, 2024 - U.S. Grains & BioProducts Council](https://feedsoft.ai/events/11563-market-perspectives-december-19-2024-u-s-grains-and-bioproducts-council.md) | +3.8% | +8.6% |

## Sources

- farmprogress.com: https://www.farmprogress.com/farm-business/illinois-grain-farms-face-losses-in-2025-obbba-payments-offer-relief

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.