# UBS BB cuts exchange rate forecasts, sees firmer real on US easing and Brazil’s rates

> UBS BB cut its exchange rate forecasts for the Brazilian real, now seeing fair value at R$5.40 per dollar at end-2025 and end-2026, firmer than its earlier R$5.80 and R$5.86 projections. The bank cites US monetary easing and high Brazilian interest rates.

- Date: 2025-09-18 · published 2025-09-18T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: macro · region Brazil · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/23092-ubs-bb-cuts-exchange-rate-forecasts-sees-firmer-real-on-us-easing-and-brazil-s
- Commodities: [Brazilian Real (BRL per USD)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/USDBRL.md)

## Why it matters

A firmer real forecast lowers the local-currency value of Brazilian grain and oilseed exports, which can modestly tighten export competitiveness and support dollar-denominated feed prices.

## Read by commodity

- USDBRL: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| USDBRL | 2025-05-20 | [Banks start forecasting stronger Brazilian real](https://feedsoft.ai/events/24895-banks-start-forecasting-stronger-brazilian-real.md) | +0.2% | -2.9% |
| USDBRL | 2022-05-03 | [Barclays Sees Sharp Rally in Brazil’s Real on Rate Hikes](https://feedsoft.ai/events/41607-barclays-sees-sharp-rally-in-brazil-s-real-on-rate-hikes.md) | +1.9% | -6.0% |
| USDBRL | 2022-04-08 | [Brazil Exchange Rate April 2022 - FocusEconomics](https://feedsoft.ai/events/42060-brazil-exchange-rate-april-2022-focuseconomics.md) | -1.2% | +6.0% |
| USDBRL | 2020-12-10 | [Brazil's real jumps after central bank hints at end of easing cycle \| Financial Post](https://feedsoft.ai/events/49851-brazil-s-real-jumps-after-central-bank-hints-at-end-of-easing-cycle-financial.md) | -0.4% | +6.4% |
| USDBRL | 2019-01-11 | [Brazil Exchange Rate January 2019 - FocusEconomics](https://feedsoft.ai/events/61298-brazil-exchange-rate-january-2019-focuseconomics.md) | +2.0% | +2.0% |

## Sources

- invezz.com: https://invezz.com/news/2025/09/18/ubs-bb-cuts-exchange-rate-forecasts-sees-firmer-real-on-us-easing-and-brazils-rates/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.