# USDA Lowers Most 2025, 2026 Dairy Price Forecasts; CME Butter Price Falls Below $2.00 - Cheese Reporter

> USDA's September supply-demand report raised 2025 and 2026 US milk production forecasts and cut most dairy price forecasts, including 2025 butter to $2.36/lb (down 16 cents). CME spot Grade AA butter fell below $2.00/lb for the first time since December 2021.

- Date: 2025-09-12 · published 2025-09-12T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: report · region US · magnitude medium
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/22853-usda-lowers-most-2025-2026-dairy-price-forecasts-cme-butter-price-falls-below-2
- Commodities: [Milk (Class III)](https://feedsoft.ai/c/MILK.md)

## Why it matters

Higher milk output paired with lower product price forecasts signals a weaker dairy market, pressuring milk and by-product values that feed into feed-ingredient pricing.

## Read by commodity

- MILK: bearish ▼

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| MILK | 2025-11-14 | [USDA Hikes 2025, 2026 Milk Production Forecasts, Lowers Most Dairy Product Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21954-usda-hikes-2025-2026-milk-production-forecasts-lowers-most-dairy-product-price.md) | +0.1% | -7.6% |
| MILK | 2025-04-11 | [USDA Hikes 2025 Milk Production Forecast, Lowers Dairy Product Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/25122-usda-hikes-2025-milk-production-forecast-lowers-dairy-product-price-forecasts.md) | +0.8% | +6.8% |
| MILK | 2025-12-10 | [USDA Lowers 2026 Milk Production, Cheese And Butter Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/21493-usda-lowers-2026-milk-production-cheese-and-butter-price-forecasts-cheese.md) | -0.8% | -6.8% |
| MILK | 2026-07-10 | [USDA Raises 2026, 2027 Milk Production Forecasts, Lowers Most Price Forecasts - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/18336-usda-raises-2026-2027-milk-production-forecasts-lowers-most-price-forecasts.md) | +0.4% | +6.4% |
| MILK | 2026-10-09 | [USDA Lowers 2026, 2027 Milk Production Forecasts; Price Forecasts Mixed - Cheese Reporter](https://feedsoft.ai/events/17113-usda-lowers-2026-2027-milk-production-forecasts-price-forecasts-mixed-cheese.md) | +1.5% | +14.9% |

## Sources

- cheesereporter.com: https://cheesereporter.com/news/2025/09/12/usda-lowers-most-2025-2026-dairy-price-forecasts-cme-butter-price-falls-below-2-00/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.