# Flip to El Nino in 2026 Increasingly Confident - Climate Impact Company

> Climate Impact Company's September 15, 2025 alert says confidence is rising for an El Niño transition in 2026, with a marine heatwave in the Northeast Pacific a possible driver. It notes worsening drought across the Midwest to Northeast US and Ohio Valley, persistent Central/East Brazil drought, and easing drought in Central Europe.

- Date: 2025-09-15 · published 2025-09-15T12:00:00.000Z
- Category: weather · region US · magnitude low
- Page: https://feedsoft.ai/events/22794-flip-to-el-nino-in-2026-increasingly-confident-climate-impact-company
- Commodities: [Corn](https://feedsoft.ai/c/CORN.md), [Soybeans](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SOY.md), [Soybean Meal](https://feedsoft.ai/c/SBM.md)

## Why it matters

Worsening US Midwest dryness and a Brazil drought that persists into planting season support corn and soybean prices, while the possible 2026 El Niño shifts South American risk later.

## Read by commodity

- SBM: bullish ▲
- SOY: bullish ▲
- CORN: bullish ▲

## Similar past events

| Commodity | Date | Event | 5-day % | 20-day % |
| --- | --- | --- | --- | --- |
| CORN | 2026-02-22 | [El Nino Analogs for U.S. Corn Belt JUN-SEP - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13018-el-nino-analogs-for-u-s-corn-belt-jun-sep-climate-impact-company.md) | +2.1% | +7.7% |
| CORN | 2021-05-04 | [Global Crop Areas Susceptible to Drought - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46988-global-crop-areas-susceptible-to-drought-climate-impact-company.md) | +1.5% | -5.8% |
| CORN | 2026-04-24 | [Explainer: How El Nino could impact the world's weather in 2026/27 \| Reuters](https://feedsoft.ai/events/19629-explainer-how-el-nino-could-impact-the-world-s-weather-in-2026-27-reuters.md) | +1.2% | +2.2% |
| CORN | 2023-10-19 | [El Nino to continue into mid-2024, threatening agriculture](https://feedsoft.ai/events/33549-el-nino-to-continue-into-mid-2024-threatening-agriculture.md) | +1.0% | -2.6% |
| CORN | 2021-09-02 | [Climate Forecast Catalysts to Produce a Wet Spring Forecast for Brazil Are Not Developing - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44990-climate-forecast-catalysts-to-produce-a-wet-spring-forecast-for-brazil-are-not.md) | -3.0% | -5.5% |
| SOY | 2026-02-22 | [El Nino Analogs for U.S. Corn Belt JUN-SEP - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/13018-el-nino-analogs-for-u-s-corn-belt-jun-sep-climate-impact-company.md) | +1.7% | +2.1% |
| SOY | 2021-05-04 | [Global Crop Areas Susceptible to Drought - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/46988-global-crop-areas-susceptible-to-drought-climate-impact-company.md) | +3.8% | -0.8% |
| SOY | 2021-09-02 | [Climate Forecast Catalysts to Produce a Wet Spring Forecast for Brazil Are Not Developing - Climate Impact Company](https://feedsoft.ai/events/44990-climate-forecast-catalysts-to-produce-a-wet-spring-forecast-for-brazil-are-not.md) | -1.5% | -1.7% |

## Sources

- climateimpactcompany.com: https://climateimpactcompany.com/ag-market-early-global-weather-climate-notes-ohio-valley-drought-worsening-europe-drought-easing-not-much-brazil-rain-2/

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Data from Feedsoft AI (https://feedsoft.ai/). For information only; not investment advice.